Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Stavros Tsimenteridis · Greece
Goals
67%
19%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction2.110.812.92safe1.15–3.070.00–1.671.10–4.75safer0.89–3.330.00–1.920.59–5.25actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction5.863.088.95safe4.01–7.721.38–4.795.38–12.51safer3.51–8.220.91–5.264.42–13.48actual9.002.0011.00
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction16.278.8625.13safe12.57–19.985.48–12.2418.05–32.21safer11.54–21.014.55–13.1716.09–34.17actual27.005.0032.00
Shots in box
92%
homeawaytotalprediction11.855.6617.50safe9.33–14.363.36–7.9612.69–22.32safer8.46–15.232.56–8.7611.03–23.98actual18.002.0020.00
Blocked shots
69%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.172.406.57safe2.59–5.750.99–3.823.58–9.57safer2.05–6.290.50–4.302.55–10.59actual10.000.0010.00
Corners
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.253.309.56safe4.05–8.461.32–5.285.37–13.74safer3.45–9.050.79–5.824.24–14.87actual8.002.0010.00
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction59.8040.00safe53.48–66.1233.68–46.32safer51.89–67.7232.08–47.92actual63.0037.00
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction518332850safe453–583267–396720–980safer435–601250–414685–1015actual563371934
Pass accuracy %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction78.3271.63safe74.11–82.5467.12–76.14safer72.80–83.8465.79–77.47
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8814.3928.27safe11.02–16.7411.44–17.3422.47–34.07safer10.14–17.6210.53–18.2520.67–35.88actual17.009.0026.00
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.443.37safe0.72–3.140.27–2.600.99–5.74safer0.37–3.480.00–2.930.32–6.41actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
31%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.624.68safe1.00–3.111.50–3.742.50–6.85safer0.73–3.381.21–4.031.94–7.42actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.100.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
18%
15%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.793.355.14safe0.38–3.211.80–4.912.18–8.11safer0.00–3.601.37–5.341.36–8.93actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.11 1.15–3.07 0.89–3.33 | 3.00 | 0.81 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.92 | 0.00 | 2.92 1.10–4.75 0.59–5.25 | 3.00 | 67% 19% 13% |
| Shots on target | 5.86 4.01–7.72 3.51–8.22 | 9.00 | 3.08 1.38–4.79 0.91–5.26 | 2.00 | 8.95 5.38–12.51 4.42–13.48 | 11.00 | 78% 13% |
| Total shots | 16.27 12.57–19.98 11.54–21.01 | 27.00 | 8.86 5.48–12.24 4.55–13.17 | 5.00 | 25.13 18.05–32.21 16.09–34.17 | 32.00 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 11.85 9.33–14.36 8.46–15.23 | 18.00 | 5.66 3.36–7.96 2.56–8.76 | 2.00 | 17.50 12.69–22.32 11.03–23.98 | 20.00 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.59–5.75 2.05–6.29 | 10.00 | 2.40 0.99–3.82 0.50–4.30 | 0.00 | 6.57 3.58–9.57 2.55–10.59 | 10.00 | 69% 18% |
| Corners | 6.25 4.05–8.46 3.45–9.05 | 8.00 | 3.30 1.32–5.28 0.79–5.82 | 2.00 | 9.56 5.37–13.74 4.24–14.87 | 10.00 | 79% |
| Possession % | 59.80 53.48–66.12 51.89–67.72 | 63.00 | 40.00 33.68–46.32 32.08–47.92 | 37.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 518 453–583 435–601 | 563 | 332 267–396 250–414 | 371 | 850 720–980 685–1015 | 934 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.32 74.11–82.54 72.80–83.84 | — | 71.63 67.12–76.14 65.79–77.47 | — | — | — | 78% 19% |
| Fouls | 13.88 11.02–16.74 10.14–17.62 | 17.00 | 14.39 11.44–17.34 10.53–18.25 | 9.00 | 28.27 22.47–34.07 20.67–35.88 | 26.00 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.72–3.14 0.37–3.48 | 2.00 | 1.44 0.27–2.60 0.00–2.93 | 1.00 | 3.37 0.99–5.74 0.32–6.41 | 3.00 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.00–3.11 0.73–3.38 | 1.00 | 2.62 1.50–3.74 1.21–4.03 | 2.00 | 4.68 2.50–6.85 1.94–7.42 | 3.00 | 31% 18% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 1.79 0.38–3.21 0.00–3.60 | 2.00 | 3.35 1.80–4.91 1.37–5.34 | 5.00 | 5.14 2.18–8.11 1.36–8.93 | 7.00 | 18% 15% 68% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+