Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 4·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Andrea Colombo · Italy
Goals
53%
25%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.630.982.61safe0.67–2.600.12–1.840.79–4.43safer0.41–2.860.00–2.080.28–4.94actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.683.267.94safe2.83–6.541.55–4.964.37–11.50safer2.33–7.041.08–5.433.41–12.47actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7010.0023.70safe10.00–17.416.62–13.3816.62–30.78safer8.97–18.445.69–14.3114.66–32.74actual13.0015.0028.00
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction10.546.3916.94safe8.03–13.064.09–8.6912.12–21.75safer7.16–13.923.30–9.4910.46–23.41actual8.0011.0019.00
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.642.876.51safe2.06–5.231.46–4.293.52–9.51safer1.52–5.760.97–4.772.49–10.53actual3.008.0011.00
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.373.859.22safe3.17–7.581.87–5.835.04–13.41safer2.57–8.171.33–6.363.91–14.54actual3.007.0010.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.4441.87safe53.12–65.7635.55–48.19safer51.53–67.3533.96–49.79actual46.0054.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction485320806safe420–551256–385676–936safer402–568238–403641–971actual367424791
Pass accuracy %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction80.6372.82safe76.41–84.8468.32–77.33safer75.11–86.1466.99–78.66
Fouls
32%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5418.8135.35safe13.68–19.4015.87–21.7629.55–41.16safer12.80–20.2814.95–22.6827.75–42.96actual15.0015.0030.00
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.563.38safe0.61–3.030.39–2.721.01–5.75safer0.27–3.380.06–3.050.33–6.43actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
33%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.332.805.13safe1.28–3.391.68–3.922.96–7.31safer1.01–3.661.39–4.212.39–7.87actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.160.22safe0.00–0.220.00–0.350.00–0.57safer0.00–0.370.00–0.490.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
23%
16%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.963.105.06safe0.55–3.371.55–4.662.09–8.03safer0.16–3.761.12–5.091.27–8.85actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 0.67–2.60 0.41–2.86 | 2.00 | 0.98 0.12–1.84 0.00–2.08 | 0.00 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.28–4.94 | 2.00 | 53% 25% 23% |
| Shots on target | 4.68 2.83–6.54 2.33–7.04 | 5.00 | 3.26 1.55–4.96 1.08–5.43 | 3.00 | 7.94 4.37–11.50 3.41–12.47 | 8.00 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 13.70 10.00–17.41 8.97–18.44 | 13.00 | 10.00 6.62–13.38 5.69–14.31 | 15.00 | 23.70 16.62–30.78 14.66–32.74 | 28.00 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 10.54 8.03–13.06 7.16–13.92 | 8.00 | 6.39 4.09–8.69 3.30–9.49 | 11.00 | 16.94 12.12–21.75 10.46–23.41 | 19.00 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 2.06–5.23 1.52–5.76 | 3.00 | 2.87 1.46–4.29 0.97–4.77 | 8.00 | 6.51 3.52–9.51 2.49–10.53 | 11.00 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 5.37 3.17–7.58 2.57–8.17 | 3.00 | 3.85 1.87–5.83 1.33–6.36 | 7.00 | 9.22 5.04–13.41 3.91–14.54 | 10.00 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 59.44 53.12–65.76 51.53–67.35 | 46.00 | 41.87 35.55–48.19 33.96–49.79 | 54.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 485 420–551 402–568 | 367 | 320 256–385 238–403 | 424 | 806 676–936 641–971 | 791 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.63 76.41–84.84 75.11–86.14 | — | 72.82 68.32–77.33 66.99–78.66 | — | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Fouls | 16.54 13.68–19.40 12.80–20.28 | 15.00 | 18.81 15.87–21.76 14.95–22.68 | 15.00 | 35.35 29.55–41.16 27.75–42.96 | 30.00 | 32% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.61–3.03 0.27–3.38 | 0.00 | 1.56 0.39–2.72 0.06–3.05 | 0.00 | 3.38 1.01–5.75 0.33–6.43 | 0.00 | 44% 23% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.33 1.28–3.39 1.01–3.66 | 3.00 | 2.80 1.68–3.92 1.39–4.21 | 1.00 | 5.13 2.96–7.31 2.39–7.87 | 4.00 | 33% 18% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.49 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 81% 14% |
| GK saves | 1.96 0.55–3.37 0.16–3.76 | 3.00 | 3.10 1.55–4.66 1.12–5.09 | 4.00 | 5.06 2.09–8.03 1.27–8.85 | 7.00 | 23% 16% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.