Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Christos Vergetis · Greece
Goals
56%
25%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.580.812.39safe0.62–2.540.00–1.670.56–4.21safer0.36–2.800.00–1.910.06–4.71actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.103.038.13safe3.24–6.951.33–4.744.57–11.69safer2.74–7.450.86–5.213.60–12.66actual2.001.003.00
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction13.758.3922.14safe10.04–17.455.02–11.7715.06–29.22safer9.01–18.484.09–12.7013.10–31.18actual23.006.0029.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction9.535.3614.90safe7.02–12.053.06–7.6710.08–19.72safer6.15–12.922.27–8.468.42–21.38actual12.001.0013.00
Blocked shots
63%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.842.476.31safe2.25–5.421.05–3.883.31–9.30safer1.72–5.960.57–4.372.29–10.32actual10.002.0012.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.913.259.16safe3.70–8.111.27–5.234.98–13.34safer3.11–8.710.74–5.773.84–14.47actual7.004.0011.00
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction50.6848.08safe44.36–57.0041.77–54.40safer42.77–58.5940.17–56.00actual59.0041.00
Passes
52%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction396390786safe330–461325–455656–916safer313–479308–472621–951actual447322769
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction72.4968.73safe68.28–76.7164.22–73.23safer66.98–78.0162.89–74.56
Fouls
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction17.5215.7133.23safe14.67–20.3812.76–18.6527.43–39.03safer13.78–21.2711.84–19.5725.63–40.84actual13.0017.0030.00
Offsides
53%
21%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.523.70safe0.97–3.390.36–2.681.32–6.07safer0.62–3.730.03–3.020.65–6.75actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.396.19safe1.74–3.852.27–4.514.01–8.37safer1.47–4.131.98–4.803.45–8.93actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
72%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.190.35safe0.01–0.320.00–0.380.01–0.70safer0.00–0.470.00–0.530.00–1.00actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
23%
16%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.033.235.26safe0.62–3.451.68–4.782.29–8.23safer0.23–3.841.24–5.221.47–9.05actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.62–2.54 0.36–2.80 | 0.00 | 0.81 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.91 | 0.00 | 2.39 0.56–4.21 0.06–4.71 | 0.00 | 56% 25% 19% |
| Shots on target | 5.10 3.24–6.95 2.74–7.45 | 2.00 | 3.03 1.33–4.74 0.86–5.21 | 1.00 | 8.13 4.57–11.69 3.60–12.66 | 3.00 | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 13.75 10.04–17.45 9.01–18.48 | 23.00 | 8.39 5.02–11.77 4.09–12.70 | 6.00 | 22.14 15.06–29.22 13.10–31.18 | 29.00 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 9.53 7.02–12.05 6.15–12.92 | 12.00 | 5.36 3.06–7.67 2.27–8.46 | 1.00 | 14.90 10.08–19.72 8.42–21.38 | 13.00 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 2.25–5.42 1.72–5.96 | 10.00 | 2.47 1.05–3.88 0.57–4.37 | 2.00 | 6.31 3.31–9.30 2.29–10.32 | 12.00 | 63% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.91 3.70–8.11 3.11–8.71 | 7.00 | 3.25 1.27–5.23 0.74–5.77 | 4.00 | 9.16 4.98–13.34 3.84–14.47 | 11.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 50.68 44.36–57.00 42.77–58.59 | 59.00 | 48.08 41.77–54.40 40.17–56.00 | 41.00 | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 396 330–461 313–479 | 447 | 390 325–455 308–472 | 322 | 786 656–916 621–951 | 769 | 52% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.49 68.28–76.71 66.98–78.01 | — | 68.73 64.22–73.23 62.89–74.56 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 17.52 14.67–20.38 13.78–21.27 | 13.00 | 15.71 12.76–18.65 11.84–19.57 | 17.00 | 33.23 27.43–39.03 25.63–40.84 | 30.00 | 59% 34% |
| Offsides | 2.18 0.97–3.39 0.62–3.73 | 3.00 | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.03–3.02 | 2.00 | 3.70 1.32–6.07 0.65–6.75 | 5.00 | 53% 21% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.80 1.74–3.85 1.47–4.13 | 1.00 | 3.39 2.27–4.51 1.98–4.80 | 3.00 | 6.19 4.01–8.37 3.45–8.93 | 4.00 | 33% 16% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.01–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.38 0.00–0.53 | 0.00 | 0.35 0.01–0.70 0.00–1.00 | 0.00 | 72% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.03 0.62–3.45 0.23–3.84 | 1.00 | 3.23 1.68–4.78 1.24–5.22 | 2.00 | 5.26 2.29–8.23 1.47–9.05 | 3.00 | 23% 16% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.