Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Meletis Gioumatzidis · Greece
Goals
31%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.422.59safe0.21–2.130.56–2.280.76–4.41safer0.00–2.390.31–2.520.26–4.91actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.154.468.61safe2.29–6.002.75–6.175.04–12.17safer1.79–6.502.28–6.634.08–13.14actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2713.1423.42safe6.57–13.979.77–16.5216.33–30.50safer5.54–15.018.84–17.4514.37–32.46actual13.006.0019.00
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction7.397.8715.25safe4.87–9.905.57–10.1710.44–20.07safer4.00–10.774.77–10.978.77–21.73actual9.004.0013.00
Blocked shots
41%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.073.106.17safe1.49–4.661.68–4.513.17–9.17safer0.95–5.191.20–5.002.15–10.19actual6.001.007.00
Corners
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.629.19safe2.36–6.772.65–6.605.01–13.37safer1.77–7.372.11–7.143.87–14.51actual3.002.005.00
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.1949.00safe44.87–57.5142.69–55.32safer43.28–59.1041.09–56.92actual53.0047.00
Passes
65%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction432387819safe367–498322–451689–949safer349–515305–469654–984actual384338722
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction69.4868.98safe65.27–73.7064.48–73.49safer63.97–75.0063.15–74.82
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2416.1430.38safe11.38–17.1013.20–19.0924.58–36.18safer10.50–17.9812.28–20.0122.78–37.99actual16.0025.0041.00
Offsides
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.562.515.08safe1.35–3.771.35–3.682.71–7.45safer1.01–4.121.02–4.012.03–8.13actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.662.925.58safe1.60–3.711.80–4.043.40–7.76safer1.33–3.991.51–4.332.84–8.32actual2.006.008.00
Red cards
16%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction0.210.170.37safe0.05–0.360.00–0.360.03–0.72safer0.00–0.510.00–0.500.00–1.02actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.474.95safe1.07–3.890.92–4.031.99–7.92safer0.68–4.280.49–4.461.16–8.74actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.21–2.13 0.00–2.39 | 1.00 | 1.42 0.56–2.28 0.31–2.52 | 2.00 | 2.59 0.76–4.41 0.26–4.91 | 3.00 | 31% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.29–6.00 1.79–6.50 | 5.00 | 4.46 2.75–6.17 2.28–6.63 | 3.00 | 8.61 5.04–12.17 4.08–13.14 | 8.00 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 10.27 6.57–13.97 5.54–15.01 | 13.00 | 13.14 9.77–16.52 8.84–17.45 | 6.00 | 23.42 16.33–30.50 14.37–32.46 | 19.00 | 24% 69% |
| Shots in box | 7.39 4.87–9.90 4.00–10.77 | 9.00 | 7.87 5.57–10.17 4.77–10.97 | 4.00 | 15.25 10.44–20.07 8.77–21.73 | 13.00 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.07 1.49–4.66 0.95–5.19 | 6.00 | 3.10 1.68–4.51 1.20–5.00 | 1.00 | 6.17 3.17–9.17 2.15–10.19 | 7.00 | 41% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.57 2.36–6.77 1.77–7.37 | 3.00 | 4.62 2.65–6.60 2.11–7.14 | 2.00 | 9.19 5.01–13.37 3.87–14.51 | 5.00 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 51.19 44.87–57.51 43.28–59.10 | 53.00 | 49.00 42.69–55.32 41.09–56.92 | 47.00 | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 432 367–498 349–515 | 384 | 387 322–451 305–469 | 338 | 819 689–949 654–984 | 722 | 65% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.48 65.27–73.70 63.97–75.00 | — | 68.98 64.48–73.49 63.15–74.82 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 14.24 11.38–17.10 10.50–17.98 | 16.00 | 16.14 13.20–19.09 12.28–20.01 | 25.00 | 30.38 24.58–36.18 22.78–37.99 | 41.00 | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 2.56 1.35–3.77 1.01–4.12 | 3.00 | 2.51 1.35–3.68 1.02–4.01 | 0.00 | 5.08 2.71–7.45 2.03–8.13 | 3.00 | 42% 18% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.66 1.60–3.71 1.33–3.99 | 2.00 | 2.92 1.80–4.04 1.51–4.33 | 6.00 | 5.58 3.40–7.76 2.84–8.32 | 8.00 | 37% 17% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.21 0.05–0.36 0.00–0.51 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.50 | 0.00 | 0.37 0.03–0.72 0.00–1.02 | 0.00 | 16% 71% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.07–3.89 0.68–4.28 | 1.00 | 2.47 0.92–4.03 0.49–4.46 | 3.00 | 4.95 1.99–7.92 1.16–8.74 | 4.00 | 41% 18% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+