Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Anastasios Papapetrou · Greece
Goals
15%
21%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction0.851.992.84safe0.00–1.811.13–2.851.02–4.67safer0.00–2.070.89–3.100.52–5.17actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
17%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.305.568.86safe1.44–5.163.85–7.275.30–12.42safer0.95–5.663.38–7.734.33–13.39actual4.005.009.00
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0216.1326.16safe6.32–13.7212.76–19.5119.07–33.24safer5.29–14.7611.82–20.4417.11–35.20actual13.0014.0027.00
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction5.8611.1417.00safe3.35–8.388.84–13.4412.19–21.82safer2.48–9.258.04–14.2410.53–23.48actual6.009.0015.00
Blocked shots
16%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction2.484.597.06safe0.89–4.063.17–6.004.07–10.06safer0.36–4.602.69–6.493.05–11.08actual3.002.005.00
Corners
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction4.095.859.94safe1.88–6.303.87–7.835.76–14.12safer1.29–6.893.33–8.364.62–15.26actual2.006.008.00
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction37.1662.60safe30.84–43.4856.28–68.92safer29.24–45.0754.69–70.52actual35.0065.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction336550885safe270–401485–614755–1015safer253–419468–632720–1050actual287547834
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction65.9777.67safe61.76–70.1973.16–82.18safer60.46–71.4971.83–83.51
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4815.0527.53safe9.62–15.3412.11–18.0021.73–33.34safer8.74–16.2211.19–18.9219.93–35.14actual15.0016.0031.00
Offsides
42%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.793.73safe0.73–3.150.63–2.961.36–6.10safer0.38–3.490.30–3.290.68–6.78actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.042.705.74safe1.98–4.101.58–3.823.56–7.92safer1.71–4.371.29–4.113.00–8.48actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.150.24safe0.00–0.250.00–0.340.00–0.59safer0.00–0.400.00–0.490.00–0.89actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
65%
15%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction3.532.115.64safe2.12–4.950.56–3.662.67–8.61safer1.73–5.340.12–4.091.85–9.43actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.85 0.00–1.81 0.00–2.07 | 0.00 | 1.99 1.13–2.85 0.89–3.10 | 1.00 | 2.84 1.02–4.67 0.52–5.17 | 1.00 | 15% 21% 64% |
| Shots on target | 3.30 1.44–5.16 0.95–5.66 | 4.00 | 5.56 3.85–7.27 3.38–7.73 | 5.00 | 8.86 5.30–12.42 4.33–13.39 | 9.00 | 17% 72% |
| Total shots | 10.02 6.32–13.72 5.29–14.76 | 13.00 | 16.13 12.76–19.51 11.82–20.44 | 14.00 | 26.16 19.07–33.24 17.11–35.20 | 27.00 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 5.86 3.35–8.38 2.48–9.25 | 6.00 | 11.14 8.84–13.44 8.04–14.24 | 9.00 | 17.00 12.19–21.82 10.53–23.48 | 15.00 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 2.48 0.89–4.06 0.36–4.60 | 3.00 | 4.59 3.17–6.00 2.69–6.49 | 2.00 | 7.06 4.07–10.06 3.05–11.08 | 5.00 | 16% 73% |
| Corners | 4.09 1.88–6.30 1.29–6.89 | 2.00 | 5.85 3.87–7.83 3.33–8.36 | 6.00 | 9.94 5.76–14.12 4.62–15.26 | 8.00 | 23% 65% |
| Possession % | 37.16 30.84–43.48 29.24–45.07 | 35.00 | 62.60 56.28–68.92 54.69–70.52 | 65.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Passes | 336 270–401 253–419 | 287 | 550 485–614 468–632 | 547 | 885 755–1015 720–1050 | 834 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.97 61.76–70.19 60.46–71.49 | — | 77.67 73.16–82.18 71.83–83.51 | — | — | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 12.48 9.62–15.34 8.74–16.22 | 15.00 | 15.05 12.11–18.00 11.19–18.92 | 16.00 | 27.53 21.73–33.34 19.93–35.14 | 31.00 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.73–3.15 0.38–3.49 | 1.00 | 1.79 0.63–2.96 0.30–3.29 | 1.00 | 3.73 1.36–6.10 0.68–6.78 | 2.00 | 42% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 3.04 1.98–4.10 1.71–4.37 | 3.00 | 2.70 1.58–3.82 1.29–4.11 | 1.00 | 5.74 3.56–7.92 3.00–8.48 | 4.00 | 47% 17% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.49 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.89 | 0.00 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.53 2.12–4.95 1.73–5.34 | 4.00 | 2.11 0.56–3.66 0.12–4.09 | 4.00 | 5.64 2.67–8.61 1.85–9.43 | 8.00 | 65% 15% 20% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.