Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Stavros Tsimenteridis · Greece
Goals
23%
25%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.642.63safe0.03–1.950.78–2.500.81–4.45safer0.00–2.210.53–2.750.30–4.96actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
27%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.554.798.33safe1.69–5.403.08–6.504.77–11.90safer1.19–5.902.61–6.963.80–12.87actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
17%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4614.7725.23safe6.76–14.1611.39–18.1518.15–32.31safer5.73–15.2010.46–19.0816.19–34.27actual8.0018.0026.00
Shots in box
23%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction7.139.6716.79safe4.61–9.647.37–11.9711.98–21.61safer3.74–10.516.57–12.7710.32–23.27actual5.0012.0017.00
Blocked shots
28%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.686.43safe1.17–4.342.26–5.093.43–9.43safer0.63–4.871.77–5.582.41–10.45actual2.006.008.00
Corners
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.125.599.71safe1.92–6.333.62–7.575.53–13.90safer1.32–6.923.08–8.114.40–15.03actual4.009.0013.00
Possession %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction42.9556.41safe36.63–49.2750.09–62.73safer35.04–50.8648.49–64.33actual29.0071.00
Passes
21%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction357449806safe292–422384–514676–936safer274–440367–531641–971actual212505717
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction67.8476.07safe63.63–72.0671.56–80.57safer62.32–73.3670.23–81.90
Fouls
19%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4116.6429.05safe9.55–15.2713.70–19.5923.25–34.85safer8.67–16.1512.78–20.5021.45–36.66actual17.0011.0028.00
Offsides
41%
19%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.234.51safe1.07–3.491.07–3.402.14–6.89safer0.73–3.830.74–3.731.47–7.56actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
45%
18%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.642.435.07safe1.58–3.701.31–3.552.89–7.24safer1.31–3.971.02–3.842.33–7.81actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.140.29safe0.00–0.300.00–0.330.00–0.63safer0.00–0.450.00–0.480.00–0.93actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
58%
16%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.332.315.64safe1.91–4.740.76–3.872.67–8.61safer1.52–5.130.33–4.301.85–9.43actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.03–1.95 0.00–2.21 | 0.00 | 1.64 0.78–2.50 0.53–2.75 | 1.00 | 2.63 0.81–4.45 0.30–4.96 | 1.00 | 23% 25% 53% |
| Shots on target | 3.55 1.69–5.40 1.19–5.90 | 4.00 | 4.79 3.08–6.50 2.61–6.96 | 3.00 | 8.33 4.77–11.90 3.80–12.87 | 7.00 | 27% 60% |
| Total shots | 10.46 6.76–14.16 5.73–15.20 | 8.00 | 14.77 11.39–18.15 10.46–19.08 | 18.00 | 25.23 18.15–32.31 16.19–34.27 | 26.00 | 17% 78% |
| Shots in box | 7.13 4.61–9.64 3.74–10.51 | 5.00 | 9.67 7.37–11.97 6.57–12.77 | 12.00 | 16.79 11.98–21.61 10.32–23.27 | 17.00 | 23% 69% |
| Blocked shots | 2.75 1.17–4.34 0.63–4.87 | 2.00 | 3.68 2.26–5.09 1.77–5.58 | 6.00 | 6.43 3.43–9.43 2.41–10.45 | 8.00 | 28% 15% 56% |
| Corners | 4.12 1.92–6.33 1.32–6.92 | 4.00 | 5.59 3.62–7.57 3.08–8.11 | 9.00 | 9.71 5.53–13.90 4.40–15.03 | 13.00 | 26% 62% |
| Possession % | 42.95 36.63–49.27 35.04–50.86 | 29.00 | 56.41 50.09–62.73 48.49–64.33 | 71.00 | — | — | 18% 78% |
| Passes | 357 292–422 274–440 | 212 | 449 384–514 367–531 | 505 | 806 676–936 641–971 | 717 | 21% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.84 63.63–72.06 62.32–73.36 | — | 76.07 71.56–80.57 70.23–81.90 | — | — | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.41 9.55–15.27 8.67–16.15 | 17.00 | 16.64 13.70–19.59 12.78–20.50 | 11.00 | 29.05 23.25–34.85 21.45–36.66 | 28.00 | 19% 76% |
| Offsides | 2.28 1.07–3.49 0.73–3.83 | 2.00 | 2.23 1.07–3.40 0.74–3.73 | 3.00 | 4.51 2.14–6.89 1.47–7.56 | 5.00 | 41% 19% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.64 1.58–3.70 1.31–3.97 | 3.00 | 2.43 1.31–3.55 1.02–3.84 | 2.00 | 5.07 2.89–7.24 2.33–7.81 | 5.00 | 45% 18% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.29 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.93 | 0.00 | 77% |
| GK saves | 3.33 1.91–4.74 1.52–5.13 | 2.00 | 2.31 0.76–3.87 0.33–4.30 | 4.00 | 5.64 2.67–8.61 1.85–9.43 | 6.00 | 58% 16% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.