Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Alexandros Tsakalidis · Greece
Goals
41%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.182.54safe0.40–2.320.32–2.040.72–4.37safer0.14–2.580.08–2.290.21–4.87actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.924.188.10safe2.06–5.772.48–5.894.54–11.66safer1.56–6.272.01–6.363.57–12.63actual6.003.009.00
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7412.1423.88safe8.03–15.448.76–15.5216.79–30.96safer7.00–16.477.83–16.4514.83–32.92actual16.007.0023.00
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.557.9815.53safe5.03–10.065.68–10.2810.71–20.34safer4.16–10.934.88–11.089.05–22.00actual7.004.0011.00
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.173.306.47safe1.59–4.751.89–4.713.47–9.47safer1.05–5.291.40–5.202.45–10.49actual7.002.009.00
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.114.9710.09safe2.91–7.323.00–6.955.90–14.27safer2.31–7.912.46–7.494.77–15.40actual5.002.007.00
Possession %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction53.7145.22safe47.39–60.0338.90–51.54safer45.80–61.6237.30–53.13actual64.0036.00
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction430361791safe365–495297–426661–921safer347–513279–443626–956actual572331903
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction68.4867.31safe64.27–72.7062.81–71.82safer62.97–74.0061.48–73.15
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0614.6827.75safe10.21–15.9211.74–17.6321.94–33.55safer9.32–16.8110.82–18.5420.14–35.35actual7.0015.0022.00
Offsides
26%
18%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.594.40safe0.60–3.021.43–3.762.03–6.77safer0.25–3.361.10–4.091.35–7.45actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
31%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.594.62safe0.98–3.091.47–3.712.45–6.80safer0.71–3.361.18–4.001.88–7.36actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
33%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.392.875.26safe0.97–3.801.32–4.432.29–8.23safer0.59–4.190.89–4.861.47–9.05actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.40–2.32 0.14–2.58 | 2.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.08–2.29 | 2.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.37 0.21–4.87 | 4.00 | 41% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 3.92 2.06–5.77 1.56–6.27 | 6.00 | 4.18 2.48–5.89 2.01–6.36 | 3.00 | 8.10 4.54–11.66 3.57–12.63 | 9.00 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 11.74 8.03–15.44 7.00–16.47 | 16.00 | 12.14 8.76–15.52 7.83–16.45 | 7.00 | 23.88 16.79–30.96 14.83–32.92 | 23.00 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 7.55 5.03–10.06 4.16–10.93 | 7.00 | 7.98 5.68–10.28 4.88–11.08 | 4.00 | 15.53 10.71–20.34 9.05–22.00 | 11.00 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.17 1.59–4.75 1.05–5.29 | 7.00 | 3.30 1.89–4.71 1.40–5.20 | 2.00 | 6.47 3.47–9.47 2.45–10.49 | 9.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.91–7.32 2.31–7.91 | 5.00 | 4.97 3.00–6.95 2.46–7.49 | 2.00 | 10.09 5.90–14.27 4.77–15.40 | 7.00 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 53.71 47.39–60.03 45.80–61.62 | 64.00 | 45.22 38.90–51.54 37.30–53.13 | 36.00 | — | — | 68% 27% |
| Passes | 430 365–495 347–513 | 572 | 361 297–426 279–443 | 331 | 791 661–921 626–956 | 903 | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.48 64.27–72.70 62.97–74.00 | — | 67.31 62.81–71.82 61.48–73.15 | — | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 13.06 10.21–15.92 9.32–16.81 | 7.00 | 14.68 11.74–17.63 10.82–18.54 | 15.00 | 27.75 21.94–33.55 20.14–35.35 | 22.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.25–3.36 | 0.00 | 2.59 1.43–3.76 1.10–4.09 | 2.00 | 4.40 2.03–6.77 1.35–7.45 | 2.00 | 26% 18% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.09 0.71–3.36 | 3.00 | 2.59 1.47–3.71 1.18–4.00 | 2.00 | 4.62 2.45–6.80 1.88–7.36 | 5.00 | 31% 19% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.97–3.80 0.59–4.19 | 1.00 | 2.87 1.32–4.43 0.89–4.86 | 4.00 | 5.26 2.29–8.23 1.47–9.05 | 5.00 | 33% 18% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+