Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Konstantinos Katikos · Greece
Goals
27%
26%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.492.56safe0.11–2.040.63–2.350.74–4.39safer0.00–2.300.38–2.600.24–4.89actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
28%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.284.427.71safe1.43–5.142.71–6.134.14–11.27safer0.93–5.642.25–6.603.17–12.24actual1.005.006.00
Total shots
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5212.2222.74safe6.82–14.238.84–15.5915.66–29.82safer5.79–15.267.91–16.5213.69–31.78actual2.0015.0017.00
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction6.588.4415.03safe4.07–9.106.14–10.7410.21–19.84safer3.20–9.965.35–11.548.55–21.50actual2.0011.0013.00
Blocked shots
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.203.286.48safe1.62–4.791.87–4.703.49–9.48safer1.08–5.321.38–5.182.47–10.50actual1.005.006.00
Corners
36%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.405.029.42safe2.19–6.603.05–7.005.24–13.60safer1.60–7.202.51–7.544.11–14.74actual7.005.0012.00
Possession %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction44.0656.70safe37.74–50.3850.38–63.02safer36.15–51.9748.78–64.62actual56.0044.00
Passes
17%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction350459810safe285–416395–524680–940safer268–433377–542645–975actual401321722
Pass accuracy %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction68.9575.57safe64.74–73.1771.06–80.07safer63.43–74.4769.73–81.40
Fouls
46%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4914.5329.02safe11.64–17.3511.58–17.4723.22–34.82safer10.75–18.2410.66–18.3921.42–36.63actual12.0022.0034.00
Offsides
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.953.40safe0.25–2.660.78–3.111.03–5.77safer0.00–3.010.45–3.440.35–6.45actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.532.495.03safe1.48–3.591.37–3.612.85–7.20safer1.21–3.861.08–3.902.29–7.77actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
19%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction0.230.120.36safe0.08–0.390.00–0.320.01–0.70safer0.00–0.540.00–0.460.00–1.00actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
50%
18%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.792.285.07safe1.37–4.200.73–3.842.10–8.04safer0.98–4.590.30–4.271.28–8.86actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.11–2.04 0.00–2.30 | 1.00 | 1.49 0.63–2.35 0.38–2.60 | 3.00 | 2.56 0.74–4.39 0.24–4.89 | 4.00 | 27% 26% 47% |
| Shots on target | 3.28 1.43–5.14 0.93–5.64 | 1.00 | 4.42 2.71–6.13 2.25–6.60 | 5.00 | 7.71 4.14–11.27 3.17–12.24 | 6.00 | 28% 14% 59% |
| Total shots | 10.52 6.82–14.23 5.79–15.26 | 2.00 | 12.22 8.84–15.59 7.91–16.52 | 15.00 | 22.74 15.66–29.82 13.69–31.78 | 17.00 | 32% 60% |
| Shots in box | 6.58 4.07–9.10 3.20–9.96 | 2.00 | 8.44 6.14–10.74 5.35–11.54 | 11.00 | 15.03 10.21–19.84 8.55–21.50 | 13.00 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 1.62–4.79 1.08–5.32 | 1.00 | 3.28 1.87–4.70 1.38–5.18 | 5.00 | 6.48 3.49–9.48 2.47–10.50 | 6.00 | 41% 16% 43% |
| Corners | 4.40 2.19–6.60 1.60–7.20 | 7.00 | 5.02 3.05–7.00 2.51–7.54 | 5.00 | 9.42 5.24–13.60 4.11–14.74 | 12.00 | 36% 52% |
| Possession % | 44.06 37.74–50.38 36.15–51.97 | 56.00 | 56.70 50.38–63.02 48.78–64.62 | 44.00 | — | — | 19% 77% |
| Passes | 350 285–416 268–433 | 401 | 459 395–524 377–542 | 321 | 810 680–940 645–975 | 722 | 17% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.95 64.74–73.17 63.43–74.47 | — | 75.57 71.06–80.07 69.73–81.40 | — | — | — | 19% 78% |
| Fouls | 14.49 11.64–17.35 10.75–18.24 | 12.00 | 14.53 11.58–17.47 10.66–18.39 | 22.00 | 29.02 23.22–34.82 21.42–36.63 | 34.00 | 46% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.25–2.66 0.00–3.01 | 0.00 | 1.95 0.78–3.11 0.45–3.44 | 3.00 | 3.40 1.03–5.77 0.35–6.45 | 3.00 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 2.53 1.48–3.59 1.21–3.86 | 4.00 | 2.49 1.37–3.61 1.08–3.90 | 2.00 | 5.03 2.85–7.20 2.29–7.77 | 6.00 | 42% 18% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.23 0.08–0.39 0.00–0.54 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.36 0.01–0.70 0.00–1.00 | 0.00 | 19% 72% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.37–4.20 0.98–4.59 | 2.00 | 2.28 0.73–3.84 0.30–4.27 | 0.00 | 5.07 2.10–8.04 1.28–8.86 | 2.00 | 50% 18% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.