Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·
Super League 1·Regular Season - 5·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Fotios Polychronis · Greece
Goals
19%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction0.782.172.95safe0.00–1.741.31–3.031.13–4.77safer0.00–2.001.07–3.280.62–5.28actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.445.468.91safe1.59–5.303.76–7.175.34–12.47safer1.09–5.803.29–7.644.38–13.44actual4.002.006.00
Total shots
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7815.3626.14safe7.07–14.4811.99–18.7419.06–33.22safer6.04–15.5111.06–19.6717.10–35.19actual12.0011.0023.00
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction5.2911.6316.92safe2.77–7.809.33–13.9312.10–21.74safer1.91–8.678.53–14.7310.44–23.40actual8.007.0015.00
Blocked shots
23%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.473.836.29safe0.88–4.052.41–5.243.29–9.29safer0.35–4.591.92–5.732.27–10.31actual2.004.006.00
Corners
15%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction3.496.219.71safe1.29–5.704.23–8.195.52–13.89safer0.69–6.293.70–8.734.39–15.02actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction39.3060.97safe32.98–45.6254.65–67.29safer31.39–47.2153.05–68.88actual40.0060.00
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction317474791safe252–382410–539661–921safer234–400392–556626–956actual274422696
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction66.4878.45safe62.27–70.7073.95–82.96safer60.97–72.0072.62–84.29
Fouls
61%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction17.1115.0832.19safe14.25–19.9712.14–18.0326.39–38.00safer13.37–20.8511.22–18.9524.59–39.80actual17.0017.0034.00
Offsides
14%
16%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction1.152.693.84safe0.00–2.361.53–3.861.47–6.21safer0.00–2.701.20–4.190.79–6.89actual1.005.006.00
Yellow cards
49%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.102.655.75safe2.04–4.151.53–3.783.58–7.93safer1.77–4.421.24–4.073.01–8.49actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
16%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.190.100.30safe0.04–0.350.00–0.300.00–0.64safer0.00–0.500.00–0.440.00–0.94actual2.000.002.00
GK saves
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.632.426.05safe2.22–5.040.87–3.983.08–9.02safer1.83–5.430.44–4.412.26–9.84actual0.003.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.78 0.00–1.74 0.00–2.00 | 1.00 | 2.17 1.31–3.03 1.07–3.28 | 2.00 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.62–5.28 | 3.00 | 19% 69% |
| Shots on target | 3.44 1.59–5.30 1.09–5.80 | 4.00 | 5.46 3.76–7.17 3.29–7.64 | 2.00 | 8.91 5.34–12.47 4.38–13.44 | 6.00 | 20% 69% |
| Total shots | 10.78 7.07–14.48 6.04–15.51 | 12.00 | 15.36 11.99–18.74 11.06–19.67 | 11.00 | 26.14 19.06–33.22 17.10–35.19 | 23.00 | 16% 79% |
| Shots in box | 5.29 2.77–7.80 1.91–8.67 | 8.00 | 11.63 9.33–13.93 8.53–14.73 | 7.00 | 16.92 12.10–21.74 10.44–23.40 | 15.00 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 2.47 0.88–4.05 0.35–4.59 | 2.00 | 3.83 2.41–5.24 1.92–5.73 | 4.00 | 6.29 3.29–9.29 2.27–10.31 | 6.00 | 23% 14% 63% |
| Corners | 3.49 1.29–5.70 0.69–6.29 | 3.00 | 6.21 4.23–8.19 3.70–8.73 | 5.00 | 9.71 5.52–13.89 4.39–15.02 | 8.00 | 15% 76% |
| Possession % | 39.30 32.98–45.62 31.39–47.21 | 40.00 | 60.97 54.65–67.29 53.05–68.88 | 60.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Passes | 317 252–382 234–400 | 274 | 474 410–539 392–556 | 422 | 791 661–921 626–956 | 696 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.48 62.27–70.70 60.97–72.00 | — | 78.45 73.95–82.96 72.62–84.29 | — | — | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 17.11 14.25–19.97 13.37–20.85 | 17.00 | 15.08 12.14–18.03 11.22–18.95 | 17.00 | 32.19 26.39–38.00 24.59–39.80 | 34.00 | 61% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.15 0.00–2.36 0.00–2.70 | 1.00 | 2.69 1.53–3.86 1.20–4.19 | 5.00 | 3.84 1.47–6.21 0.79–6.89 | 6.00 | 14% 16% 70% |
| Yellow cards | 3.10 2.04–4.15 1.77–4.42 | 2.00 | 2.65 1.53–3.78 1.24–4.07 | 3.00 | 5.75 3.58–7.93 3.01–8.49 | 5.00 | 49% 17% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.19 0.04–0.35 0.00–0.50 | 2.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.30 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.94 | 2.00 | 16% 76% |
| GK saves | 3.63 2.22–5.04 1.83–5.43 | 0.00 | 2.42 0.87–3.98 0.44–4.41 | 3.00 | 6.05 3.08–9.02 2.26–9.84 | 3.00 | 61% 15% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.