Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.091.532.62safe0.12–2.060.68–2.390.80–4.45safer0.00–2.310.45–2.620.32–4.93
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.834.428.25safe1.97–5.702.67–6.164.64–11.85safer1.48–6.182.21–6.623.69–12.81
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8312.5725.39safe8.90–16.759.00–16.1317.90–32.88safer7.81–17.848.04–17.0915.85–34.93
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction7.238.0415.27safe4.29–10.175.36–10.729.64–20.89safer3.46–11.004.62–11.468.08–22.46
Blocked shots
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.033.486.51safe1.14–4.911.83–5.132.97–10.04safer0.60–5.451.33–5.621.93–11.08
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.915.299.19safe1.69–6.123.29–7.294.98–13.41safer1.12–6.692.75–7.823.87–14.51
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction40.9659.57safe34.17–47.7552.78–66.35safer32.50–49.4251.11–68.02
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction352495847safe285–420428–561713–981safer267–438411–579677–1016
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction61.3773.51safe57.34–65.4069.18–77.83safer56.04–66.6967.88–79.14
Fouls
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8913.6129.50safe13.05–18.7310.67–16.5623.72–35.28safer12.30–19.489.92–17.3022.21–36.79
Offsides
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.343.40safe0.90–3.220.25–2.431.15–5.66safer0.60–3.530.00–2.720.56–6.25
Yellow cards
45%
19%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.502.254.75safe1.46–3.551.12–3.372.57–6.93safer1.19–3.820.83–3.672.01–7.49
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.825.77safe1.52–4.391.26–4.372.78–8.76safer1.13–4.780.84–4.801.97–9.58
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 0.12–2.06 0.00–2.31 | 1.53 0.68–2.39 0.45–2.62 | 2.62 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 27% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.83 1.97–5.70 1.48–6.18 | 4.42 2.67–6.16 2.21–6.62 | 8.25 4.64–11.85 3.69–12.81 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.83 8.90–16.75 7.81–17.84 | 12.57 9.00–16.13 8.04–17.09 | 25.39 17.90–32.88 15.85–34.93 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 7.23 4.29–10.17 3.46–11.00 | 8.04 5.36–10.72 4.62–11.46 | 15.27 9.64–20.89 8.08–22.46 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.03 1.14–4.91 0.60–5.45 | 3.48 1.83–5.13 1.33–5.62 | 6.51 2.97–10.04 1.93–11.08 | 35% 16% 49% |
| Corners | 3.91 1.69–6.12 1.12–6.69 | 5.29 3.29–7.29 2.75–7.82 | 9.19 4.98–13.41 3.87–14.51 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 40.96 34.17–47.75 32.50–49.42 | 59.57 52.78–66.35 51.11–68.02 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 352 285–420 267–438 | 495 428–561 411–579 | 847 713–981 677–1016 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.37 57.34–65.40 56.04–66.69 | 73.51 69.18–77.83 67.88–79.14 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 15.89 13.05–18.73 12.30–19.48 | 13.61 10.67–16.56 9.92–17.30 | 29.50 23.72–35.28 22.21–36.79 | 63% 30% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.53 | 1.34 0.25–2.43 0.00–2.72 | 3.40 1.15–5.66 0.56–6.25 | 54% 21% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 2.50 1.46–3.55 1.19–3.82 | 2.25 1.12–3.37 0.83–3.67 | 4.75 2.57–6.93 2.01–7.49 | 45% 19% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.39 1.13–4.78 | 2.82 1.26–4.37 0.84–4.80 | 5.77 2.78–8.76 1.97–9.58 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+