Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.622.77safe0.19–2.120.76–2.470.95–4.59safer0.00–2.370.54–2.700.47–5.07
Shots on target
30%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.674.678.35safe1.81–5.542.93–6.414.74–11.95safer1.32–6.032.46–6.883.79–12.91
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1314.0025.13safe7.20–15.0510.43–17.5617.64–32.61safer6.11–16.149.48–18.5215.59–34.66
Shots in box
22%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction6.418.9815.39safe3.47–9.366.30–11.669.77–21.02safer2.64–10.185.56–12.408.20–22.58
Blocked shots
35%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.123.606.73safe1.24–5.011.95–5.253.19–10.26safer0.70–5.551.46–5.752.16–11.30
Corners
36%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.354.909.25safe2.13–6.562.90–6.905.03–13.46safer1.56–7.132.37–7.433.93–14.57
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction47.5652.53safe40.77–54.3545.74–59.31safer39.10–56.0244.07–60.98
Passes
48%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction405409813safe337–472342–475680–947safer319–490325–493644–983
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction65.4373.30safe61.40–69.4668.98–77.63safer60.11–70.7567.67–78.94
Fouls
23%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3815.8828.27safe9.54–15.2212.94–18.8322.48–34.05safer8.79–15.9712.19–19.5820.98–35.55
Offsides
27%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.983.36safe0.22–2.540.89–3.071.11–5.61safer0.00–2.840.60–3.360.52–6.20
Yellow cards
37%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.524.83safe1.25–3.351.39–3.652.65–7.00safer0.99–3.621.10–3.942.09–7.56
Red cards
15%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.110.29safe0.02–0.340.00–0.300.00–0.64safer0.00–0.490.00–0.430.00–0.92
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.072.785.85safe1.63–4.501.22–4.342.85–8.84safer1.24–4.890.80–4.762.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.19–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.62 0.76–2.47 0.54–2.70 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.47–5.07 | 27% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.67 1.81–5.54 1.32–6.03 | 4.67 2.93–6.41 2.46–6.88 | 8.35 4.74–11.95 3.79–12.91 | 30% 13% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.13 7.20–15.05 6.11–16.14 | 14.00 10.43–17.56 9.48–18.52 | 25.13 17.64–32.61 15.59–34.66 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 6.41 3.47–9.36 2.64–10.18 | 8.98 6.30–11.66 5.56–12.40 | 15.39 9.77–21.02 8.20–22.58 | 22% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.24–5.01 0.70–5.55 | 3.60 1.95–5.25 1.46–5.75 | 6.73 3.19–10.26 2.16–11.30 | 35% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 4.35 2.13–6.56 1.56–7.13 | 4.90 2.90–6.90 2.37–7.43 | 9.25 5.03–13.46 3.93–14.57 | 36% 13% 51% |
| Possession % | 47.56 40.77–54.35 39.10–56.02 | 52.53 45.74–59.31 44.07–60.98 | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 405 337–472 319–490 | 409 342–475 325–493 | 813 680–947 644–983 | 48% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.43 61.40–69.46 60.11–70.75 | 73.30 68.98–77.63 67.67–78.94 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.54–15.22 8.79–15.97 | 15.88 12.94–18.83 12.19–19.58 | 28.27 22.48–34.05 20.98–35.55 | 23% 71% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 1.98 0.89–3.07 0.60–3.36 | 3.36 1.11–5.61 0.52–6.20 | 27% 22% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.25–3.35 0.99–3.62 | 2.52 1.39–3.65 1.10–3.94 | 4.83 2.65–7.00 2.09–7.56 | 37% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.02–0.34 0.00–0.49 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 15% 76% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.63–4.50 1.24–4.89 | 2.78 1.22–4.34 0.80–4.76 | 5.85 2.85–8.84 2.04–9.65 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.