Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
27%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.042.44safe0.44–2.370.18–1.890.62–4.26safer0.18–2.620.00–2.120.14–4.74
Shots on target
60%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.423.187.60safe2.56–6.281.44–4.923.99–11.20safer2.07–6.770.97–5.393.04–12.16
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8310.5224.34safe9.90–17.756.96–14.0816.86–31.83safer8.81–18.846.00–15.0414.81–33.88
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.797.0115.80safe5.85–11.734.33–9.6910.18–21.42safer5.02–12.563.59–10.438.61–22.99
Blocked shots
56%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.642.726.35safe1.75–5.521.06–4.372.82–9.89safer1.21–6.060.57–4.861.78–10.92
Corners
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.333.668.99safe3.11–7.541.66–5.664.77–13.20safer2.54–8.111.13–6.193.67–14.31
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction54.8245.22safe48.02–61.6138.44–52.01safer46.36–63.2836.77–53.68
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction439344784safe372–507278–411650–918safer354–525260–428614–953
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction68.2866.60safe64.25–72.3162.28–70.93safer62.95–73.6060.97–72.24
Fouls
41%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction16.8517.7234.57safe14.01–19.6914.77–20.6628.78–40.35safer13.25–20.4414.03–21.4127.28–41.85
Offsides
66%
16%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.811.454.26safe1.65–3.970.36–2.542.01–6.51safer1.35–4.270.07–2.831.42–7.10
Yellow cards
34%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.175.83safe1.61–3.712.04–4.303.65–8.01safer1.35–3.981.75–4.593.10–8.57
Red cards
77%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.180.28safe0.00–0.260.00–0.370.00–0.63safer0.00–0.410.00–0.500.00–0.91
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.373.155.52safe0.94–3.811.59–4.712.53–8.51safer0.55–4.201.17–5.131.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.44–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.04 0.18–1.89 0.00–2.12 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 45% 27% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.56–6.28 2.07–6.77 | 3.18 1.44–4.92 0.97–5.39 | 7.60 3.99–11.20 3.04–12.16 | 60% 13% 26% |
| Total shots | 13.83 9.90–17.75 8.81–18.84 | 10.52 6.96–14.08 6.00–15.04 | 24.34 16.86–31.83 14.81–33.88 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 8.79 5.85–11.73 5.02–12.56 | 7.01 4.33–9.69 3.59–10.43 | 15.80 10.18–21.42 8.61–22.99 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.75–5.52 1.21–6.06 | 2.72 1.06–4.37 0.57–4.86 | 6.35 2.82–9.89 1.78–10.92 | 56% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.11–7.54 2.54–8.11 | 3.66 1.66–5.66 1.13–6.19 | 8.99 4.77–13.20 3.67–14.31 | 65% 23% |
| Possession % | 54.82 48.02–61.61 46.36–63.28 | 45.22 38.44–52.01 36.77–53.68 | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 439 372–507 354–525 | 344 278–411 260–428 | 784 650–918 614–953 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.28 64.25–72.31 62.95–73.60 | 66.60 62.28–70.93 60.97–72.24 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 16.85 14.01–19.69 13.25–20.44 | 17.72 14.77–20.66 14.03–21.41 | 34.57 28.78–40.35 27.28–41.85 | 41% 52% |
| Offsides | 2.81 1.65–3.97 1.35–4.27 | 1.45 0.36–2.54 0.07–2.83 | 4.26 2.01–6.51 1.42–7.10 | 66% 16% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 2.66 1.61–3.71 1.35–3.98 | 3.17 2.04–4.30 1.75–4.59 | 5.83 3.65–8.01 3.10–8.57 | 34% 17% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.37 0.00–0.50 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.94–3.81 0.55–4.20 | 3.15 1.59–4.71 1.17–5.13 | 5.52 2.53–8.51 1.72–9.33 | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.