Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
24%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.722.71safe0.02–1.960.86–2.570.88–4.53safer0.00–2.210.63–2.800.40–5.01
Shots on target
21%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.295.078.36safe1.43–5.163.32–6.814.75–11.96safer0.94–5.652.86–7.273.80–12.92
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9513.8024.76safe7.03–14.8810.24–17.3717.27–32.24safer5.94–15.979.28–18.3315.22–34.30
Shots in box
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction5.999.3315.32safe3.05–8.936.65–12.019.70–20.95safer2.22–9.765.91–12.758.13–22.51
Blocked shots
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.923.836.75safe1.04–4.812.17–5.483.22–10.29safer0.50–5.351.68–5.972.18–11.32
Corners
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.675.589.25safe1.46–5.893.58–7.585.04–13.47safer0.89–6.463.05–8.113.93–14.57
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction40.9959.78safe34.20–47.7852.99–66.56safer32.53–49.4551.32–68.23
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction325436761safe258–392369–502627–895safer240–410352–520591–930
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction61.2373.71safe57.20–65.2669.39–78.04safer55.91–66.5568.08–79.35
Fouls
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0316.4131.44safe12.19–17.8713.47–19.3625.66–37.23safer11.44–18.6212.72–20.1124.16–38.73
Offsides
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.322.79safe0.30–2.620.23–2.420.53–5.04safer0.00–2.930.00–2.710.00–5.63
Yellow cards
37%
19%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.292.474.75safe1.24–3.331.34–3.592.57–6.93safer0.97–3.601.05–3.892.02–7.49
Red cards
13%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.150.31safe0.00–0.320.00–0.330.00–0.66safer0.00–0.470.00–0.470.00–0.94
GK saves
56%
16%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.342.455.79safe1.90–4.770.89–4.002.79–8.78safer1.51–5.160.47–4.431.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.72 0.86–2.57 0.63–2.80 | 2.71 0.88–4.53 0.40–5.01 | 22% 24% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.29 1.43–5.16 0.94–5.65 | 5.07 3.32–6.81 2.86–7.27 | 8.36 4.75–11.96 3.80–12.92 | 21% 67% |
| Total shots | 10.95 7.03–14.88 5.94–15.97 | 13.80 10.24–17.37 9.28–18.33 | 24.76 17.27–32.24 15.22–34.30 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 5.99 3.05–8.93 2.22–9.76 | 9.33 6.65–12.01 5.91–12.75 | 15.32 9.70–20.95 8.13–22.51 | 16% 77% |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 1.04–4.81 0.50–5.35 | 3.83 2.17–5.48 1.68–5.97 | 6.75 3.22–10.29 2.18–11.32 | 29% 15% 56% |
| Corners | 3.67 1.46–5.89 0.89–6.46 | 5.58 3.58–7.58 3.05–8.11 | 9.25 5.04–13.47 3.93–14.57 | 21% 68% |
| Possession % | 40.99 34.20–47.78 32.53–49.45 | 59.78 52.99–66.56 51.32–68.23 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 325 258–392 240–410 | 436 369–502 352–520 | 761 627–895 591–930 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.23 57.20–65.26 55.91–66.55 | 73.71 69.39–78.04 68.08–79.35 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 15.03 12.19–17.87 11.44–18.62 | 16.41 13.47–19.36 12.72–20.11 | 31.44 25.66–37.23 24.16–38.73 | 37% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.93 | 1.32 0.23–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 2.79 0.53–5.04 0.00–5.63 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.29 1.24–3.33 0.97–3.60 | 2.47 1.34–3.59 1.05–3.89 | 4.75 2.57–6.93 2.02–7.49 | 37% 19% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.31 0.00–0.66 0.00–0.94 | 13% 75% |
| GK saves | 3.34 1.90–4.77 1.51–5.16 | 2.45 0.89–4.00 0.47–4.43 | 5.79 2.79–8.78 1.98–9.59 | 56% 16% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.