Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jarred Gillett · Australia
Goals
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.242.88safe0.68–2.600.38–2.101.06–4.70safer0.42–2.860.14–2.350.55–5.21actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
47%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.554.308.85safe2.70–6.412.59–6.015.29–12.41safer2.20–6.912.12–6.484.32–13.38actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4311.6024.03safe8.73–16.138.22–14.9816.95–31.11safer7.70–17.167.29–15.9114.99–33.07actual16.0011.0027.00
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.247.2416.49safe6.73–11.764.94–9.5411.67–21.30safer5.86–12.624.14–10.3410.01–22.96actual8.005.0013.00
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.052.886.93safe2.47–5.631.47–4.303.94–9.93safer1.93–6.170.98–4.792.91–10.95actual2.004.006.00
Corners
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.874.078.94safe2.67–7.082.09–6.054.76–13.12safer2.07–7.671.55–6.583.62–14.26actual9.001.0010.00
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.5947.01safe47.27–59.9140.70–53.33safer45.68–61.5139.10–54.93actual61.0039.00
Passes
70%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction475412886safe409–540347–476756–1016safer392–558329–494721–1051actual567381948
Pass accuracy %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction86.1280.93safe81.90–90.3376.43–85.44safer80.60–91.6375.10–86.77actual92.0085.00
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4012.8224.22safe8.55–14.269.87–15.7618.42–30.02safer7.66–15.158.96–16.6816.62–31.83actual14.0012.0026.00
Offsides
20%
19%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.332.373.70safe0.12–2.541.20–3.531.33–6.07safer0.00–2.890.87–3.860.65–6.75actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.314.23safe0.86–2.971.19–3.432.05–6.40safer0.59–3.240.90–3.721.49–6.96actual1.005.006.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.755.64safe1.48–4.311.19–4.302.68–8.61safer1.09–4.700.76–4.731.85–9.43actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 0.68–2.60 0.42–2.86 | 0.00 | 1.24 0.38–2.10 0.14–2.35 | 2.00 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.55–5.21 | 2.00 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.55 2.70–6.41 2.20–6.91 | 4.00 | 4.30 2.59–6.01 2.12–6.48 | 4.00 | 8.85 5.29–12.41 4.32–13.38 | 8.00 | 47% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 12.43 8.73–16.13 7.70–17.16 | 16.00 | 11.60 8.22–14.98 7.29–15.91 | 11.00 | 24.03 16.95–31.11 14.99–33.07 | 27.00 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 9.24 6.73–11.76 5.86–12.62 | 8.00 | 7.24 4.94–9.54 4.14–10.34 | 5.00 | 16.49 11.67–21.30 10.01–22.96 | 13.00 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.47–5.63 1.93–6.17 | 2.00 | 2.88 1.47–4.30 0.98–4.79 | 4.00 | 6.93 3.94–9.93 2.91–10.95 | 6.00 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 4.87 2.67–7.08 2.07–7.67 | 9.00 | 4.07 2.09–6.05 1.55–6.58 | 1.00 | 8.94 4.76–13.12 3.62–14.26 | 10.00 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Possession % | 53.59 47.27–59.91 45.68–61.51 | 61.00 | 47.01 40.70–53.33 39.10–54.93 | 39.00 | — | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 475 409–540 392–558 | 567 | 412 347–476 329–494 | 381 | 886 756–1016 721–1051 | 948 | 70% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.12 81.90–90.33 80.60–91.63 | 92.00 | 80.93 76.43–85.44 75.10–86.77 | 85.00 | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Fouls | 11.40 8.55–14.26 7.66–15.15 | 14.00 | 12.82 9.87–15.76 8.96–16.68 | 12.00 | 24.22 18.42–30.02 16.62–31.83 | 26.00 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.33 0.12–2.54 0.00–2.89 | 0.00 | 2.37 1.20–3.53 0.87–3.86 | 3.00 | 3.70 1.33–6.07 0.65–6.75 | 3.00 | 20% 19% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.86–2.97 0.59–3.24 | 1.00 | 2.31 1.19–3.43 0.90–3.72 | 5.00 | 4.23 2.05–6.40 1.49–6.96 | 6.00 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.48–4.31 1.09–4.70 | 2.00 | 2.75 1.19–4.30 0.76–4.73 | 4.00 | 5.64 2.68–8.61 1.85–9.43 | 6.00 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+