UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.322.99safe0.69–2.630.47–2.181.16–4.81safer0.44–2.880.24–2.410.68–5.29
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.589.76safe3.32–7.042.83–6.326.15–13.36safer2.83–7.532.37–6.795.19–14.32
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2711.8827.16safe11.35–19.208.32–15.4519.67–34.64safer10.26–20.297.36–16.4017.62–36.69
Shots in box
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction10.057.8617.91safe7.11–12.995.18–10.5412.28–23.53safer6.28–13.824.44–11.2810.72–25.10
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.043.087.12safe2.15–5.921.43–4.743.58–10.65safer1.61–6.460.94–5.232.55–11.69
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.774.179.94safe3.56–7.982.17–6.175.72–14.15safer2.98–8.561.63–6.704.62–15.26
Possession %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction52.0348.59safe45.24–58.8241.81–55.38safer43.57–60.4940.14–57.05
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction468447915safe400–535381–513781–1048safer382–553363–531745–1084
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction70.0171.75safe65.98–74.0467.42–76.07safer64.69–75.3466.11–77.38
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7812.4324.22safe8.95–14.629.49–15.3818.43–30.00safer8.19–15.388.74–16.1216.93–31.50
Offsides
15%
14%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction1.533.244.77safe0.37–2.692.15–4.332.51–7.02safer0.06–2.991.86–4.621.92–7.61
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.154.08safe0.88–2.981.02–3.281.91–6.26safer0.61–3.250.73–3.571.35–6.82
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.386.32safe1.50–4.381.82–4.933.32–9.31safer1.12–4.761.39–5.362.51–10.12
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 0.69–2.63 0.44–2.88 | 1.32 0.47–2.18 0.24–2.41 | 2.99 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.29 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.18 3.32–7.04 2.83–7.53 | 4.58 2.83–6.32 2.37–6.79 | 9.76 6.15–13.36 5.19–14.32 | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 15.27 11.35–19.20 10.26–20.29 | 11.88 8.32–15.45 7.36–16.40 | 27.16 19.67–34.64 17.62–36.69 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 10.05 7.11–12.99 6.28–13.82 | 7.86 5.18–10.54 4.44–11.28 | 17.91 12.28–23.53 10.72–25.10 | 66% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.04 2.15–5.92 1.61–6.46 | 3.08 1.43–4.74 0.94–5.23 | 7.12 3.58–10.65 2.55–11.69 | 57% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 5.77 3.56–7.98 2.98–8.56 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.63–6.70 | 9.94 5.72–14.15 4.62–15.26 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 52.03 45.24–58.82 43.57–60.49 | 48.59 41.81–55.38 40.14–57.05 | — | 56% 40% |
| Passes | 468 400–535 382–553 | 447 381–513 363–531 | 915 781–1048 745–1084 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.01 65.98–74.04 64.69–75.34 | 71.75 67.42–76.07 66.11–77.38 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.95–14.62 8.19–15.38 | 12.43 9.49–15.38 8.74–16.12 | 24.22 18.43–30.00 16.93–31.50 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.06–2.99 | 3.24 2.15–4.33 1.86–4.62 | 4.77 2.51–7.02 1.92–7.61 | 15% 14% 71% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.98 0.61–3.25 | 2.15 1.02–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 4.08 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.82 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.50–4.38 1.12–4.76 | 3.38 1.82–4.93 1.39–5.36 | 6.32 3.32–9.31 2.51–10.12 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.