UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea · Spain
Goals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.182.51safe0.37–2.300.32–2.040.69–4.33safer0.11–2.560.07–2.280.18–4.84actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.463.788.23safe2.60–6.312.07–5.484.67–11.80safer2.10–6.811.60–5.953.70–12.77actual5.0010.0015.00
Total shots
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction12.589.8122.40safe8.88–16.296.44–13.1915.31–29.48safer7.85–17.325.51–14.1213.35–31.44actual13.0013.0026.00
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction7.937.1315.06safe5.42–10.454.83–9.4310.24–19.88safer4.55–11.314.03–10.228.58–21.54actual10.0011.0021.00
Blocked shots
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.292.545.83safe1.71–4.871.13–3.962.83–8.83safer1.17–5.410.64–4.441.81–9.85actual4.002.006.00
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.079.22safe2.94–7.352.09–6.055.03–13.40safer2.35–7.951.56–6.593.90–14.53actual6.004.0010.00
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.0651.56safe41.74–54.3745.24–57.88safer40.14–55.9743.64–59.48actual58.0042.00
Passes
43%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction411432844safe346–477368–497714–974safer328–494350–514679–1009actual472346818
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction74.3773.81safe70.15–78.5969.30–78.32safer68.85–79.8967.97–79.65actual84.0078.00
Fouls
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7711.7626.53safe11.92–17.638.82–14.7120.73–32.34safer11.03–18.527.90–15.6218.93–34.14actual14.0012.0026.00
Offsides
28%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.173.005.16safe0.96–3.371.84–4.162.79–7.54safer0.61–3.721.50–4.492.11–8.21actual3.004.007.00
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.122.234.36safe1.07–3.181.11–3.352.18–6.53safer0.80–3.450.82–3.641.62–7.09actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
28%
18%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.774.79safe0.60–3.431.21–4.321.82–7.75safer0.21–3.820.78–4.751.00–8.57actual8.003.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.37–2.30 0.11–2.56 | 1.00 | 1.18 0.32–2.04 0.07–2.28 | 2.00 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.18–4.84 | 3.00 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.31 2.10–6.81 | 5.00 | 3.78 2.07–5.48 1.60–5.95 | 10.00 | 8.23 4.67–11.80 3.70–12.77 | 15.00 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Total shots | 12.58 8.88–16.29 7.85–17.32 | 13.00 | 9.81 6.44–13.19 5.51–14.12 | 13.00 | 22.40 15.31–29.48 13.35–31.44 | 26.00 | 68% 24% |
| Shots in box | 7.93 5.42–10.45 4.55–11.31 | 10.00 | 7.13 4.83–9.43 4.03–10.22 | 11.00 | 15.06 10.24–19.88 8.58–21.54 | 21.00 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.29 1.71–4.87 1.17–5.41 | 4.00 | 2.54 1.13–3.96 0.64–4.44 | 2.00 | 5.83 2.83–8.83 1.81–9.85 | 6.00 | 54% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.94–7.35 2.35–7.95 | 6.00 | 4.07 2.09–6.05 1.56–6.59 | 4.00 | 9.22 5.03–13.40 3.90–14.53 | 10.00 | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 48.06 41.74–54.37 40.14–55.97 | 58.00 | 51.56 45.24–57.88 43.64–59.48 | 42.00 | — | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 411 346–477 328–494 | 472 | 432 368–497 350–514 | 346 | 844 714–974 679–1009 | 818 | 43% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.37 70.15–78.59 68.85–79.89 | 84.00 | 73.81 69.30–78.32 67.97–79.65 | 78.00 | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 14.77 11.92–17.63 11.03–18.52 | 14.00 | 11.76 8.82–14.71 7.90–15.62 | 12.00 | 26.53 20.73–32.34 18.93–34.14 | 26.00 | 69% 25% |
| Offsides | 2.17 0.96–3.37 0.61–3.72 | 3.00 | 3.00 1.84–4.16 1.50–4.49 | 4.00 | 5.16 2.79–7.54 2.11–8.21 | 7.00 | 28% 17% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.07–3.18 0.80–3.45 | 0.00 | 2.23 1.11–3.35 0.82–3.64 | 2.00 | 4.36 2.18–6.53 1.62–7.09 | 2.00 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.02 0.60–3.43 0.21–3.82 | 8.00 | 2.77 1.21–4.32 0.78–4.75 | 3.00 | 4.79 1.82–7.75 1.00–8.57 | 11.00 | 28% 18% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+