UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
15%
19%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction0.922.163.08safe0.00–1.891.30–3.011.25–4.90safer0.00–2.141.07–3.240.77–5.38
Shots on target
16%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction3.446.009.44safe1.58–5.304.26–7.745.84–13.05safer1.09–5.793.79–8.214.88–14.00
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1815.9126.09safe6.26–14.1112.35–19.4718.61–33.58safer5.17–15.2011.39–20.4316.55–35.63
Shots in box
14%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.3710.2016.57safe3.43–9.317.52–12.8810.95–22.20safer2.60–10.146.78–13.629.38–23.76
Blocked shots
18%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.554.446.99safe0.67–4.442.78–6.093.46–10.53safer0.13–4.982.29–6.582.42–11.56
Corners
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction4.116.3210.43safe1.90–6.324.32–8.326.21–14.64safer1.32–6.903.78–8.855.11–15.75
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction36.3063.28safe29.51–43.0956.50–70.07safer27.84–44.7654.83–71.74
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction317570887safe250–384504–637754–1021safer232–403486–654718–1057
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction69.1482.13safe65.11–73.1777.80–86.45safer63.82–74.4676.49–87.76
Fouls
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6611.9322.59safe7.83–13.508.98–14.8716.81–28.37safer7.07–14.268.23–15.6215.30–29.88
Offsides
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.973.84safe0.71–3.030.87–3.061.58–6.09safer0.41–3.330.58–3.351.00–6.68
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.923.82safe0.85–2.950.79–3.041.64–6.00safer0.59–3.220.50–3.341.08–6.55
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
70%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.222.366.58safe2.78–5.650.80–3.913.58–9.57safer2.40–6.040.38–4.342.77–10.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 0.00–1.89 0.00–2.14 | 2.16 1.30–3.01 1.07–3.24 | 3.08 1.25–4.90 0.77–5.38 | 15% 19% 66% |
| Shots on target | 3.44 1.58–5.30 1.09–5.79 | 6.00 4.26–7.74 3.79–8.21 | 9.44 5.84–13.05 4.88–14.00 | 16% 75% |
| Total shots | 10.18 6.26–14.11 5.17–15.20 | 15.91 12.35–19.47 11.39–20.43 | 26.09 18.61–33.58 16.55–35.63 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 6.37 3.43–9.31 2.60–10.14 | 10.20 7.52–12.88 6.78–13.62 | 16.57 10.95–22.20 9.38–23.76 | 14% 79% |
| Blocked shots | 2.55 0.67–4.44 0.13–4.98 | 4.44 2.78–6.09 2.29–6.58 | 6.99 3.46–10.53 2.42–11.56 | 18% 70% |
| Corners | 4.11 1.90–6.32 1.32–6.90 | 6.32 4.32–8.32 3.78–8.85 | 10.43 6.21–14.64 5.11–15.75 | 20% 70% |
| Possession % | 36.30 29.51–43.09 27.84–44.76 | 63.28 56.50–70.07 54.83–71.74 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 317 250–384 232–403 | 570 504–637 486–654 | 887 754–1021 718–1057 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.14 65.11–73.17 63.82–74.46 | 82.13 77.80–86.45 76.49–87.76 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 10.66 7.83–13.50 7.07–14.26 | 11.93 8.98–14.87 8.23–15.62 | 22.59 16.81–28.37 15.30–29.88 | 35% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.41–3.33 | 1.97 0.87–3.06 0.58–3.35 | 3.84 1.58–6.09 1.00–6.68 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.59–3.22 | 1.92 0.79–3.04 0.50–3.34 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.55 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 4.22 2.78–5.65 2.40–6.04 | 2.36 0.80–3.91 0.38–4.34 | 6.58 3.58–9.57 2.77–10.38 | 70% 17% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.