UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Mohammed Al-Hakim · Sweden
Goals
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.352.61safe0.30–2.220.49–2.200.79–4.43safer0.04–2.480.24–2.450.28–4.94actual1.004.005.00
Shots on target
28%
14%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.174.247.41safe1.32–5.032.53–5.953.85–10.98safer0.82–5.532.06–6.412.88–11.94actual2.008.0010.00
Total shots
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction9.739.6619.40safe6.03–13.446.28–13.0412.31–26.48safer5.00–14.475.35–13.9710.35–28.44actual13.0023.0036.00
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.688.0615.74safe5.16–10.205.76–10.3610.92–20.56safer4.30–11.064.96–11.169.26–22.22actual10.0014.0024.00
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.193.326.52safe1.61–4.781.91–4.743.52–9.51safer1.07–5.311.42–5.222.50–10.53actual4.008.0012.00
Corners
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.334.829.16safe2.13–6.542.85–6.804.97–13.34safer1.53–7.132.31–7.343.84–14.47actual2.0013.0015.00
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.5356.51safe37.21–49.8550.19–62.82safer35.62–51.4548.59–64.42actual42.0058.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction350512862safe285–415447–576732–992safer267–433430–594697–1027actual344454798
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction75.5484.74safe71.32–79.7580.23–89.24safer70.02–81.0578.90–90.57actual83.0090.00
Fouls
50%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2412.8026.04safe10.38–16.109.85–15.7420.24–31.84safer9.50–16.988.93–16.6618.43–33.64actual15.0017.0032.00
Offsides
37%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.773.48safe0.50–2.920.61–2.941.11–5.85safer0.15–3.260.28–3.270.43–6.53actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.893.51safe0.56–2.670.77–3.011.33–5.68safer0.29–2.940.48–3.300.77–6.25actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.300.00–0.51safer0.00–0.360.00–0.440.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.064.25safe0.78–3.610.50–3.611.28–7.22safer0.39–4.000.07–4.040.46–8.04actual3.001.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.30–2.22 0.04–2.48 | 1.00 | 1.35 0.49–2.20 0.24–2.45 | 4.00 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.28–4.94 | 5.00 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Shots on target | 3.17 1.32–5.03 0.82–5.53 | 2.00 | 4.24 2.53–5.95 2.06–6.41 | 8.00 | 7.41 3.85–10.98 2.88–11.94 | 10.00 | 28% 14% 58% |
| Total shots | 9.73 6.03–13.44 5.00–14.47 | 13.00 | 9.66 6.28–13.04 5.35–13.97 | 23.00 | 19.40 12.31–26.48 10.35–28.44 | 36.00 | 46% 45% |
| Shots in box | 7.68 5.16–10.20 4.30–11.06 | 10.00 | 8.06 5.76–10.36 4.96–11.16 | 14.00 | 15.74 10.92–20.56 9.26–22.22 | 24.00 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.19 1.61–4.78 1.07–5.31 | 4.00 | 3.32 1.91–4.74 1.42–5.22 | 8.00 | 6.52 3.52–9.51 2.50–10.53 | 12.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 4.33 2.13–6.54 1.53–7.13 | 2.00 | 4.82 2.85–6.80 2.31–7.34 | 13.00 | 9.16 4.97–13.34 3.84–14.47 | 15.00 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Possession % | 43.53 37.21–49.85 35.62–51.45 | 42.00 | 56.51 50.19–62.82 48.59–64.42 | 58.00 | — | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 350 285–415 267–433 | 344 | 512 447–576 430–594 | 454 | 862 732–992 697–1027 | 798 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.54 71.32–79.75 70.02–81.05 | 83.00 | 84.74 80.23–89.24 78.90–90.57 | 90.00 | — | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 13.24 10.38–16.10 9.50–16.98 | 15.00 | 12.80 9.85–15.74 8.93–16.66 | 17.00 | 26.04 20.24–31.84 18.43–33.64 | 32.00 | 50% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.50–2.92 0.15–3.26 | 2.00 | 1.77 0.61–2.94 0.28–3.27 | 2.00 | 3.48 1.11–5.85 0.43–6.53 | 4.00 | 37% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.67 0.29–2.94 | 2.00 | 1.89 0.77–3.01 0.48–3.30 | 0.00 | 3.51 1.33–5.68 0.77–6.25 | 2.00 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.19 0.78–3.61 0.39–4.00 | 3.00 | 2.06 0.50–3.61 0.07–4.04 | 1.00 | 4.25 1.28–7.22 0.46–8.04 | 4.00 | 43% 20% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.