UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
22%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.032.94safe0.95–2.890.17–1.881.12–4.77safer0.70–3.140.00–2.110.64–5.25
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.083.499.57safe4.22–7.951.75–5.235.97–13.18safer3.73–8.431.28–5.705.01–14.13
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction18.219.7027.91safe14.29–22.146.14–13.2720.43–35.40safer13.20–23.235.18–14.2218.38–37.45
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction12.246.0518.29safe9.29–15.183.37–8.7312.66–23.91safer8.46–16.012.63–9.4711.10–25.48
Blocked shots
73%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.892.687.57safe3.01–6.771.03–4.334.03–11.10safer2.46–7.310.54–4.833.00–12.14
Corners
82%
homeawaytotalprediction6.543.239.77safe4.32–8.751.23–5.245.56–13.99safer3.75–9.330.70–5.774.45–15.09
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.7544.32safe48.96–62.5437.54–51.11safer47.29–64.2135.87–52.78
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction559436994safe491–626369–502861–1128safer473–644352–520825–1164
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction76.8474.24safe72.81–80.8769.91–78.56safer71.52–82.1668.60–79.87
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0311.5823.61safe9.20–14.878.63–14.5217.83–29.39safer8.44–15.637.88–15.2716.32–30.90
Offsides
47%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.463.32safe0.70–3.020.37–2.551.07–5.58safer0.40–3.320.08–2.840.48–6.17
Yellow cards
32%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.093.78safe0.64–2.740.96–3.221.60–5.96safer0.37–3.000.67–3.511.04–6.52
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
20%
13%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.424.046.46safe0.99–3.862.48–5.603.47–9.45safer0.60–4.252.06–6.022.66–10.27
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.92 0.95–2.89 0.70–3.14 | 1.03 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.94 1.12–4.77 0.64–5.25 | 58% 22% 20% |
| Shots on target | 6.08 4.22–7.95 3.73–8.43 | 3.49 1.75–5.23 1.28–5.70 | 9.57 5.97–13.18 5.01–14.13 | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 18.21 14.29–22.14 13.20–23.23 | 9.70 6.14–13.27 5.18–14.22 | 27.91 20.43–35.40 18.38–37.45 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 12.24 9.29–15.18 8.46–16.01 | 6.05 3.37–8.73 2.63–9.47 | 18.29 12.66–23.91 11.10–25.48 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 4.89 3.01–6.77 2.46–7.31 | 2.68 1.03–4.33 0.54–4.83 | 7.57 4.03–11.10 3.00–12.14 | 73% 16% |
| Corners | 6.54 4.32–8.75 3.75–9.33 | 3.23 1.23–5.24 0.70–5.77 | 9.77 5.56–13.99 4.45–15.09 | 82% |
| Possession % | 55.75 48.96–62.54 47.29–64.21 | 44.32 37.54–51.11 35.87–52.78 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 559 491–626 473–644 | 436 369–502 352–520 | 994 861–1128 825–1164 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.84 72.81–80.87 71.52–82.16 | 74.24 69.91–78.56 68.60–79.87 | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 12.03 9.20–14.87 8.44–15.63 | 11.58 8.63–14.52 7.88–15.27 | 23.61 17.83–29.39 16.32–30.90 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.32 | 1.46 0.37–2.55 0.08–2.84 | 3.32 1.07–5.58 0.48–6.17 | 47% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.00 | 2.09 0.96–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 3.78 1.60–5.96 1.04–6.52 | 32% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.42 0.99–3.86 0.60–4.25 | 4.04 2.48–5.60 2.06–6.02 | 6.46 3.47–9.45 2.66–10.27 | 20% 13% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.