UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 7·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 7·Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
20%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.151.133.27safe1.18–3.110.27–1.981.45–5.10safer0.93–3.360.04–2.210.97–5.58
Shots on target
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.523.6810.20safe4.65–8.381.94–5.426.59–13.80safer4.17–8.871.47–5.895.63–14.76
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction18.589.6728.25safe14.66–22.516.11–13.2320.77–35.74safer13.56–23.605.15–14.1918.71–37.79
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction11.676.5618.23safe8.73–14.623.88–9.2412.61–23.86safer7.90–15.453.14–9.9811.04–25.42
Blocked shots
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.762.757.51safe2.88–6.651.09–4.403.98–11.05safer2.34–7.190.60–4.892.94–12.08
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.863.2110.07safe4.64–9.071.21–5.215.85–14.28safer4.07–9.640.68–5.744.75–15.39
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction57.0142.74safe50.22–63.8035.95–49.52safer48.55–65.4734.28–51.20
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction565414979safe498–632348–481845–1113safer479–650330–498810–1148
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction77.6273.31safe73.59–81.6568.98–77.63safer72.30–82.9467.67–78.94
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0612.5123.58safe8.23–13.909.57–15.4617.80–29.36safer7.47–14.668.82–16.2116.29–30.86
Offsides
44%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.433.13safe0.53–2.850.34–2.530.87–5.38safer0.23–3.150.05–2.820.28–5.97
Yellow cards
28%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.522.073.60safe0.48–2.570.94–3.201.42–5.78safer0.21–2.840.65–3.490.86–6.33
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
21%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.343.856.19safe0.90–3.772.30–5.413.20–9.18safer0.51–4.161.87–5.832.38–9.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.15 1.18–3.11 0.93–3.36 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 3.27 1.45–5.10 0.97–5.58 | 61% 20% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.52 4.65–8.38 4.17–8.87 | 3.68 1.94–5.42 1.47–5.89 | 10.20 6.59–13.80 5.63–14.76 | 77% 14% |
| Total shots | 18.58 14.66–22.51 13.56–23.60 | 9.67 6.11–13.23 5.15–14.19 | 28.25 20.77–35.74 18.71–37.79 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 11.67 8.73–14.62 7.90–15.45 | 6.56 3.88–9.24 3.14–9.98 | 18.23 12.61–23.86 11.04–25.42 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 4.76 2.88–6.65 2.34–7.19 | 2.75 1.09–4.40 0.60–4.89 | 7.51 3.98–11.05 2.94–12.08 | 71% 18% |
| Corners | 6.86 4.64–9.07 4.07–9.64 | 3.21 1.21–5.21 0.68–5.74 | 10.07 5.85–14.28 4.75–15.39 | 84% |
| Possession % | 57.01 50.22–63.80 48.55–65.47 | 42.74 35.95–49.52 34.28–51.20 | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 565 498–632 479–650 | 414 348–481 330–498 | 979 845–1113 810–1148 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.62 73.59–81.65 72.30–82.94 | 73.31 68.98–77.63 67.67–78.94 | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.06 8.23–13.90 7.47–14.66 | 12.51 9.57–15.46 8.82–16.21 | 23.58 17.80–29.36 16.29–30.86 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.43 0.34–2.53 0.05–2.82 | 3.13 0.87–5.38 0.28–5.97 | 44% 24% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.48–2.57 0.21–2.84 | 2.07 0.94–3.20 0.65–3.49 | 3.60 1.42–5.78 0.86–6.33 | 28% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.34 0.90–3.77 0.51–4.16 | 3.85 2.30–5.41 1.87–5.83 | 6.19 3.20–9.18 2.38–9.99 | 21% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.