UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jasper Vergoote · Belgium
Goals
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.200.823.02safe1.24–3.170.00–1.681.20–4.84safer0.98–3.430.00–1.920.69–5.35actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction7.473.0410.51safe5.62–9.331.34–4.756.95–14.08safer5.12–9.830.87–5.225.98–15.05actual8.003.0011.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction19.767.9627.72safe16.06–23.474.58–11.3420.64–34.80safer15.03–24.503.65–12.2718.68–36.76actual17.005.0022.00
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction11.995.4917.48safe9.47–14.503.19–7.7912.66–22.29safer8.60–15.372.39–8.5911.00–23.95actual11.004.0015.00
Blocked shots
81%
homeawaytotalprediction4.752.026.78safe3.17–6.340.61–3.443.78–9.77safer2.63–6.870.12–3.922.76–10.80actual4.001.005.00
Corners
90%
homeawaytotalprediction7.082.649.71safe4.87–9.280.66–4.625.53–13.90safer4.28–9.880.12–5.164.40–15.03actual6.002.008.00
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction62.3837.19safe56.06–68.7030.87–43.51safer54.47–70.3029.28–45.11actual56.0044.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction633344976safe567–698279–408846–1106safer550–715262–426811–1141actual6154951110
Pass accuracy %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction85.1978.49safe80.98–89.4173.98–82.99safer79.67–90.7172.65–84.32actual88.0088.00
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6111.3722.98safe8.75–14.478.43–14.3217.18–28.78safer7.87–15.357.51–15.2315.38–30.59actual16.0010.0026.00
Offsides
41%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.533.21safe0.46–2.880.37–2.700.84–5.58safer0.12–3.230.04–3.030.16–6.26actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
30%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.033.62safe0.53–2.650.91–3.151.45–5.80safer0.26–2.920.62–3.440.88–6.36actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.020.090.11safe0.00–0.170.00–0.280.00–0.46safer0.00–0.330.00–0.430.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
14%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction1.994.116.10safe0.57–3.402.56–5.673.13–9.07safer0.18–3.792.13–6.102.31–9.89actual3.007.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.20 1.24–3.17 0.98–3.43 | 2.00 | 0.82 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.92 | 0.00 | 3.02 1.20–4.84 0.69–5.35 | 2.00 | 69% 19% |
| Shots on target | 7.47 5.62–9.33 5.12–9.83 | 8.00 | 3.04 1.34–4.75 0.87–5.22 | 3.00 | 10.51 6.95–14.08 5.98–15.05 | 11.00 | 89% |
| Total shots | 19.76 16.06–23.47 15.03–24.50 | 17.00 | 7.96 4.58–11.34 3.65–12.27 | 5.00 | 27.72 20.64–34.80 18.68–36.76 | 22.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 11.99 9.47–14.50 8.60–15.37 | 11.00 | 5.49 3.19–7.79 2.39–8.59 | 4.00 | 17.48 12.66–22.29 11.00–23.95 | 15.00 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 4.75 3.17–6.34 2.63–6.87 | 4.00 | 2.02 0.61–3.44 0.12–3.92 | 1.00 | 6.78 3.78–9.77 2.76–10.80 | 5.00 | 81% |
| Corners | 7.08 4.87–9.28 4.28–9.88 | 6.00 | 2.64 0.66–4.62 0.12–5.16 | 2.00 | 9.71 5.53–13.90 4.40–15.03 | 8.00 | 90% |
| Possession % | 62.38 56.06–68.70 54.47–70.30 | 56.00 | 37.19 30.87–43.51 29.28–45.11 | 44.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Passes | 633 567–698 550–715 | 615 | 344 279–408 262–426 | 495 | 976 846–1106 811–1141 | 1110 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.19 80.98–89.41 79.67–90.71 | 88.00 | 78.49 73.98–82.99 72.65–84.32 | 88.00 | — | — | 78% 18% |
| Fouls | 11.61 8.75–14.47 7.87–15.35 | 16.00 | 11.37 8.43–14.32 7.51–15.23 | 10.00 | 22.98 17.18–28.78 15.38–30.59 | 26.00 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.46–2.88 0.12–3.23 | 2.00 | 1.53 0.37–2.70 0.04–3.03 | 1.00 | 3.21 0.84–5.58 0.16–6.26 | 3.00 | 41% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.53–2.65 0.26–2.92 | 0.00 | 2.03 0.91–3.15 0.62–3.44 | 0.00 | 3.62 1.45–5.80 0.88–6.36 | 0.00 | 30% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.02 0.00–0.17 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 1.99 0.57–3.40 0.18–3.79 | 3.00 | 4.11 2.56–5.67 2.13–6.10 | 7.00 | 6.10 3.13–9.07 2.31–9.89 | 10.00 | 14% 75% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.