Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.222.95safe0.76–2.690.37–2.081.12–4.77safer0.50–2.940.14–2.310.64–5.25
Shots on target
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.854.039.89safe3.99–7.712.29–5.786.28–13.49safer3.50–8.201.83–6.245.33–14.45
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9811.1928.16safe13.05–20.907.63–14.7520.68–35.65safer11.96–21.996.67–15.7118.63–37.70
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction11.137.2418.37safe8.19–14.074.55–9.9212.74–23.99safer7.36–14.903.82–10.6511.18–25.56
Blocked shots
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.653.097.74safe2.77–6.541.44–4.744.21–11.28safer2.23–7.080.94–5.233.17–12.31
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction6.014.4110.43safe3.80–8.232.41–6.416.21–14.64safer3.23–8.801.88–6.945.10–15.75
Possession %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction53.7546.99safe46.96–60.5440.21–53.78safer45.29–62.2138.54–55.45
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction523456979safe456–590389–522845–1112safer438–608372–540809–1148
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction76.8675.87safe72.83–80.8971.54–80.19safer71.54–82.1870.23–81.50
Fouls
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5513.4823.03safe6.72–12.3910.54–16.4317.25–28.82safer5.96–13.159.79–17.1715.75–30.32
Offsides
40%
24%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.543.16safe0.45–2.770.45–2.640.90–5.41safer0.15–3.070.16–2.920.31–6.00
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.514.20safe0.65–2.751.38–3.632.03–6.38safer0.38–3.011.08–3.931.47–6.94
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.716.37safe1.22–4.092.15–5.263.37–9.36safer0.84–4.481.73–5.692.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 0.76–2.69 0.50–2.94 | 1.22 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.95 1.12–4.77 0.64–5.25 | 49% 24% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.85 3.99–7.71 3.50–8.20 | 4.03 2.29–5.78 1.83–6.24 | 9.89 6.28–13.49 5.33–14.45 | 66% 23% |
| Total shots | 16.98 13.05–20.90 11.96–21.99 | 11.19 7.63–14.75 6.67–15.71 | 28.16 20.68–35.65 18.63–37.70 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 11.13 8.19–14.07 7.36–14.90 | 7.24 4.55–9.92 3.82–10.65 | 18.37 12.74–23.99 11.18–25.56 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 2.77–6.54 2.23–7.08 | 3.09 1.44–4.74 0.94–5.23 | 7.74 4.21–11.28 3.17–12.31 | 65% 23% |
| Corners | 6.01 3.80–8.23 3.23–8.80 | 4.41 2.41–6.41 1.88–6.94 | 10.43 6.21–14.64 5.10–15.75 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 53.75 46.96–60.54 45.29–62.21 | 46.99 40.21–53.78 38.54–55.45 | — | 63% 32% |
| Passes | 523 456–590 438–608 | 456 389–522 372–540 | 979 845–1112 809–1148 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.86 72.83–80.89 71.54–82.18 | 75.87 71.54–80.19 70.23–81.50 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 9.55 6.72–12.39 5.96–13.15 | 13.48 10.54–16.43 9.79–17.17 | 23.03 17.25–28.82 15.75–30.32 | 18% 76% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.54 0.45–2.64 0.16–2.92 | 3.16 0.90–5.41 0.31–6.00 | 40% 24% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.38–3.01 | 2.51 1.38–3.63 1.08–3.93 | 4.20 2.03–6.38 1.47–6.94 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.22–4.09 0.84–4.48 | 3.71 2.15–5.26 1.73–5.69 | 6.37 3.37–9.36 2.56–10.17 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.