Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Andrea Colombo
Goals
52%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.122.88safe0.80–2.720.26–1.981.06–4.70safer0.54–2.980.02–2.230.55–5.21actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.273.249.50safe4.41–8.121.53–4.945.94–13.06safer3.91–8.621.06–5.414.97–14.03actual7.003.0010.00
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction16.468.3824.84safe12.76–20.175.00–11.7617.76–31.92safer11.73–21.204.07–12.6915.80–33.89actual18.0014.0032.00
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction11.016.1417.15safe8.50–13.533.84–8.4412.33–21.97safer7.63–14.393.04–9.2410.67–23.63actual13.006.0019.00
Blocked shots
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.452.276.72safe2.87–6.030.85–3.683.72–9.72safer2.33–6.570.37–4.172.70–10.74actual3.002.005.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.563.8310.40safe4.36–8.771.85–5.816.21–14.58safer3.76–9.371.32–6.355.08–15.71actual3.004.007.00
Possession %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction48.9751.64safe42.65–55.2945.32–57.96safer41.05–56.8843.73–59.56actual54.0046.00
Passes
48%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction435440875safe369–500375–505745–1005safer352–518358–522710–1040actual521443964
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction81.2778.05safe77.05–85.4973.55–82.56safer75.75–86.7972.22–83.89
Fouls
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6813.1225.80safe9.82–15.5310.17–16.0619.99–31.60safer8.93–16.429.26–16.9818.19–33.40actual10.0012.0022.00
Offsides
34%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.304.26safe0.74–3.161.14–3.471.88–6.63safer0.40–3.510.81–3.801.21–7.30actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
38%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.324.53safe1.15–3.261.20–3.442.35–6.70safer0.88–3.530.91–3.731.79–7.26actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.310.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.450.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
16%
14%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction1.863.605.46safe0.45–3.272.05–5.152.49–8.43safer0.06–3.661.61–5.591.67–9.25actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.80–2.72 0.54–2.98 | 4.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 1.00 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.55–5.21 | 5.00 | 52% 23% 24% |
| Shots on target | 6.27 4.41–8.12 3.91–8.62 | 7.00 | 3.24 1.53–4.94 1.06–5.41 | 3.00 | 9.50 5.94–13.06 4.97–14.03 | 10.00 | 80% |
| Total shots | 16.46 12.76–20.17 11.73–21.20 | 18.00 | 8.38 5.00–11.76 4.07–12.69 | 14.00 | 24.84 17.76–31.92 15.80–33.89 | 32.00 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 11.01 8.50–13.53 7.63–14.39 | 13.00 | 6.14 3.84–8.44 3.04–9.24 | 6.00 | 17.15 12.33–21.97 10.67–23.63 | 19.00 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 4.45 2.87–6.03 2.33–6.57 | 3.00 | 2.27 0.85–3.68 0.37–4.17 | 2.00 | 6.72 3.72–9.72 2.70–10.74 | 5.00 | 74% 15% |
| Corners | 6.56 4.36–8.77 3.76–9.37 | 3.00 | 3.83 1.85–5.81 1.32–6.35 | 4.00 | 10.40 6.21–14.58 5.08–15.71 | 7.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 48.97 42.65–55.29 41.05–56.88 | 54.00 | 51.64 45.32–57.96 43.73–59.56 | 46.00 | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Passes | 435 369–500 352–518 | 521 | 440 375–505 358–522 | 443 | 875 745–1005 710–1040 | 964 | 48% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.27 77.05–85.49 75.75–86.79 | — | 78.05 73.55–82.56 72.22–83.89 | — | — | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 12.68 9.82–15.53 8.93–16.42 | 10.00 | 13.12 10.17–16.06 9.26–16.98 | 12.00 | 25.80 19.99–31.60 18.19–33.40 | 22.00 | 43% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.74–3.16 0.40–3.51 | 1.00 | 2.30 1.14–3.47 0.81–3.80 | 0.00 | 4.26 1.88–6.63 1.21–7.30 | 1.00 | 34% 20% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.26 0.88–3.53 | 2.00 | 2.32 1.20–3.44 0.91–3.73 | 1.00 | 4.53 2.35–6.70 1.79–7.26 | 3.00 | 38% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 1.86 0.45–3.27 0.06–3.66 | 2.00 | 3.60 2.05–5.15 1.61–5.59 | 3.00 | 5.46 2.49–8.43 1.67–9.25 | 5.00 | 16% 14% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.