UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.133.01safe0.91–2.850.27–1.981.18–4.83safer0.66–3.100.04–2.210.71–5.31
Shots on target
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.033.689.71safe4.17–7.891.94–5.426.11–13.32safer3.68–8.381.47–5.895.15–14.27
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction17.169.6926.85safe13.24–21.096.13–13.2519.36–34.34safer12.15–22.185.17–14.2117.31–36.39
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction10.936.6717.60safe7.99–13.873.99–9.3511.98–23.23safer7.16–14.703.26–10.0910.41–24.79
Blocked shots
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.012.317.31safe3.13–6.890.65–3.963.78–10.85safer2.58–7.430.16–4.452.74–11.89
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.593.7210.31safe4.37–8.801.72–5.726.10–14.52safer3.80–9.381.19–6.264.99–15.63
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction59.6240.41safe52.83–66.4133.63–47.20safer51.16–68.0831.96–48.87
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction553363916safe486–620296–429782–1049safer467–638279–447746–1085
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction79.1169.60safe75.08–83.1465.27–73.92safer73.79–84.4363.96–75.23
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6113.0023.61safe7.77–13.4510.05–15.9417.83–29.39safer7.02–14.219.30–16.6916.32–30.90
Offsides
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.462.253.71safe0.30–2.621.16–3.341.45–5.96safer0.00–2.920.87–3.630.86–6.55
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.173.70safe0.48–2.581.04–3.301.52–5.88safer0.21–2.840.75–3.590.97–6.44
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.373.876.24safe0.93–3.812.31–5.423.24–9.23safer0.55–4.191.89–5.852.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.88 0.91–2.85 0.66–3.10 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 3.01 1.18–4.83 0.71–5.31 | 55% 22% 23% |
| Shots on target | 6.03 4.17–7.89 3.68–8.38 | 3.68 1.94–5.42 1.47–5.89 | 9.71 6.11–13.32 5.15–14.27 | 72% 18% |
| Total shots | 17.16 13.24–21.09 12.15–22.18 | 9.69 6.13–13.25 5.17–14.21 | 26.85 19.36–34.34 17.31–36.39 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 10.93 7.99–13.87 7.16–14.70 | 6.67 3.99–9.35 3.26–10.09 | 17.60 11.98–23.23 10.41–24.79 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 5.01 3.13–6.89 2.58–7.43 | 2.31 0.65–3.96 0.16–4.45 | 7.31 3.78–10.85 2.74–11.89 | 79% |
| Corners | 6.59 4.37–8.80 3.80–9.38 | 3.72 1.72–5.72 1.19–6.26 | 10.31 6.10–14.52 4.99–15.63 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 59.62 52.83–66.41 51.16–68.08 | 40.41 33.63–47.20 31.96–48.87 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 553 486–620 467–638 | 363 296–429 279–447 | 916 782–1049 746–1085 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.11 75.08–83.14 73.79–84.43 | 69.60 65.27–73.92 63.96–75.23 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.61 7.77–13.45 7.02–14.21 | 13.00 10.05–15.94 9.30–16.69 | 23.61 17.83–29.39 16.32–30.90 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.92 | 2.25 1.16–3.34 0.87–3.63 | 3.71 1.45–5.96 0.86–6.55 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.21–2.84 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 3.70 1.52–5.88 0.97–6.44 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.93–3.81 0.55–4.19 | 3.87 2.31–5.42 1.89–5.85 | 6.24 3.24–9.23 2.43–10.04 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+