UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
26%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.061.462.53safe0.10–2.030.61–2.320.71–4.35safer0.00–2.280.38–2.550.23–4.83
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.924.218.13safe2.06–5.782.46–5.954.52–11.73safer1.57–6.272.00–6.413.57–12.69
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1912.1623.35safe7.27–15.128.60–15.7215.86–30.84safer6.18–16.217.64–16.6813.81–32.89
Shots in box
35%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction6.657.5714.22safe3.71–9.594.89–10.258.60–19.84safer2.88–10.424.15–10.997.03–21.41
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.953.216.16safe1.07–4.831.55–4.862.62–9.69safer0.53–5.381.06–5.351.59–10.73
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.224.648.85safe2.00–6.432.64–6.644.64–13.07safer1.43–7.002.10–7.173.53–14.17
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction39.7361.15safe32.94–46.5254.37–67.94safer31.27–48.1952.70–69.61
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction370576946safe302–437509–642812–1079safer284–455492–660776–1115
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction72.8985.81safe68.86–76.9281.48–90.13safer67.57–78.2180.17–91.44
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2010.8923.09safe9.36–15.047.94–13.8317.31–28.87safer8.61–15.807.19–14.5815.80–30.38
Offsides
64%
17%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.741.484.23safe1.58–3.900.39–2.571.97–6.48safer1.28–4.210.10–2.861.38–7.07
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.274.47safe1.15–3.241.14–3.402.29–6.65safer0.88–3.510.85–3.691.73–7.20
Red cards
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.100.26safe0.00–0.320.00–0.290.00–0.61safer0.00–0.470.00–0.420.00–0.89
GK saves
39%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.672.795.45safe1.23–4.101.23–4.342.46–8.45safer0.84–4.490.81–4.771.65–9.26
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 0.10–2.03 0.00–2.28 | 1.46 0.61–2.32 0.38–2.55 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.23–4.83 | 27% 26% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.92 2.06–5.78 1.57–6.27 | 4.21 2.46–5.95 2.00–6.41 | 8.13 4.52–11.73 3.57–12.69 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 11.19 7.27–15.12 6.18–16.21 | 12.16 8.60–15.72 7.64–16.68 | 23.35 15.86–30.84 13.81–32.89 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 6.65 3.71–9.59 2.88–10.42 | 7.57 4.89–10.25 4.15–10.99 | 14.22 8.60–19.84 7.03–21.41 | 35% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 2.95 1.07–4.83 0.53–5.38 | 3.21 1.55–4.86 1.06–5.35 | 6.16 2.62–9.69 1.59–10.73 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.22 2.00–6.43 1.43–7.00 | 4.64 2.64–6.64 2.10–7.17 | 8.85 4.64–13.07 3.53–14.17 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 39.73 32.94–46.52 31.27–48.19 | 61.15 54.37–67.94 52.70–69.61 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 370 302–437 284–455 | 576 509–642 492–660 | 946 812–1079 776–1115 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.89 68.86–76.92 67.57–78.21 | 85.81 81.48–90.13 80.17–91.44 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 12.20 9.36–15.04 8.61–15.80 | 10.89 7.94–13.83 7.19–14.58 | 23.09 17.31–28.87 15.80–30.38 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 2.74 1.58–3.90 1.28–4.21 | 1.48 0.39–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 4.23 1.97–6.48 1.38–7.07 | 64% 17% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.24 0.88–3.51 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 4.47 2.29–6.65 1.73–7.20 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 13% 78% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 2.79 1.23–4.34 0.81–4.77 | 5.45 2.46–8.45 1.65–9.26 | 39% 18% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.