UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
64%
20%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.040.902.93safe1.07–3.000.04–1.751.11–4.75safer0.82–3.260.00–1.980.63–5.23
Shots on target
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.043.229.26safe4.17–7.901.48–4.975.66–12.87safer3.68–8.391.02–5.434.70–13.82
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction16.789.3426.12safe12.86–20.715.77–12.9018.63–33.61safer11.77–21.804.81–13.8616.58–35.66
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction11.685.6317.31safe8.74–14.632.94–8.3111.69–22.93safer7.91–15.452.21–9.0410.12–24.50
Blocked shots
65%
13%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.342.817.15safe2.45–6.221.16–4.473.61–10.69safer1.91–6.760.67–4.962.58–11.72
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.223.8210.03safe4.00–8.431.82–5.825.82–14.25safer3.43–9.001.28–6.354.71–15.35
Possession %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction52.6249.22safe45.82–59.4142.44–56.01safer44.16–61.0840.76–57.68
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction477461938safe410–544395–528804–1072safer391–562377–545769–1107
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction73.9375.37safe69.90–77.9671.05–79.70safer68.61–79.2669.74–81.00
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1812.2023.37safe8.34–14.019.25–15.1417.59–29.15safer7.58–14.778.50–15.8916.09–30.66
Offsides
53%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.171.483.65safe1.01–3.330.39–2.571.40–5.91safer0.71–3.640.10–2.860.81–6.50
Yellow cards
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.783.30safe0.47–2.570.65–2.911.12–5.48safer0.21–2.840.36–3.200.57–6.04
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.183.725.90safe0.74–3.612.16–5.282.91–8.89safer0.35–4.001.74–5.702.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 1.07–3.00 0.82–3.26 | 0.90 0.04–1.75 0.00–1.98 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.63–5.23 | 64% 20% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.04 4.17–7.90 3.68–8.39 | 3.22 1.48–4.97 1.02–5.43 | 9.26 5.66–12.87 4.70–13.82 | 78% 13% |
| Total shots | 16.78 12.86–20.71 11.77–21.80 | 9.34 5.77–12.90 4.81–13.86 | 26.12 18.63–33.61 16.58–35.66 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 11.68 8.74–14.63 7.91–15.45 | 5.63 2.94–8.31 2.21–9.04 | 17.31 11.69–22.93 10.12–24.50 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 4.34 2.45–6.22 1.91–6.76 | 2.81 1.16–4.47 0.67–4.96 | 7.15 3.61–10.69 2.58–11.72 | 65% 13% 22% |
| Corners | 6.22 4.00–8.43 3.43–9.00 | 3.82 1.82–5.82 1.28–6.35 | 10.03 5.82–14.25 4.71–15.35 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 52.62 45.82–59.41 44.16–61.08 | 49.22 42.44–56.01 40.76–57.68 | — | 56% 40% |
| Passes | 477 410–544 391–562 | 461 395–528 377–545 | 938 804–1072 769–1107 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.93 69.90–77.96 68.61–79.26 | 75.37 71.05–79.70 69.74–81.00 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 11.18 8.34–14.01 7.58–14.77 | 12.20 9.25–15.14 8.50–15.89 | 23.37 17.59–29.15 16.09–30.66 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.17 1.01–3.33 0.71–3.64 | 1.48 0.39–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 3.65 1.40–5.91 0.81–6.50 | 53% 21% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.47–2.57 0.21–2.84 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 3.30 1.12–5.48 0.57–6.04 | 33% 23% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.74–3.61 0.35–4.00 | 3.72 2.16–5.28 1.74–5.70 | 5.90 2.91–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.