UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
23%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.783.00safe0.26–2.190.93–2.641.18–4.83safer0.00–2.440.70–2.860.70–5.31
Shots on target
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.405.319.71safe2.54–6.263.57–7.056.10–13.31safer2.05–6.753.10–7.525.15–14.27
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2813.4026.67safe9.35–17.209.83–16.9619.19–34.16safer8.26–18.298.87–17.9217.14–36.21
Shots in box
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction8.009.2417.24safe5.06–10.946.56–11.9211.61–22.86safer4.23–11.775.82–12.6610.05–24.43
Blocked shots
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.794.137.92safe1.91–5.672.48–5.784.38–11.46safer1.36–6.211.99–6.283.35–12.49
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.745.249.97safe2.52–6.953.24–7.245.76–14.19safer1.95–7.522.70–7.774.65–15.29
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction48.0652.99safe41.27–54.8546.20–59.77safer39.60–56.5244.53–61.45
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction436480916safe369–503414–546783–1050safer351–522396–564747–1086
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction76.6076.96safe72.57–80.6272.64–81.28safer71.27–81.9271.33–82.59
Fouls
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8413.7024.54safe8.00–13.6810.75–16.6418.76–30.32safer7.25–14.4410.00–17.3917.25–31.83
Offsides
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.382.98safe0.45–2.770.28–2.470.73–5.24safer0.15–3.070.00–2.760.14–5.83
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.043.88safe0.78–2.880.91–3.171.70–6.06safer0.52–3.150.62–3.461.14–6.61
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
52%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.462.856.31safe2.03–4.901.29–4.403.32–9.30safer1.64–5.290.87–4.832.50–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.26–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.78 0.93–2.64 0.70–2.86 | 3.00 1.18–4.83 0.70–5.31 | 26% 23% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.40 2.54–6.26 2.05–6.75 | 5.31 3.57–7.05 3.10–7.52 | 9.71 6.10–13.31 5.15–14.27 | 32% 55% |
| Total shots | 13.28 9.35–17.20 8.26–18.29 | 13.40 9.83–16.96 8.87–17.92 | 26.67 19.19–34.16 17.14–36.21 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 8.00 5.06–10.94 4.23–11.77 | 9.24 6.56–11.92 5.82–12.66 | 17.24 11.61–22.86 10.05–24.43 | 34% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.91–5.67 1.36–6.21 | 4.13 2.48–5.78 1.99–6.28 | 7.92 4.38–11.46 3.35–12.49 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Corners | 4.74 2.52–6.95 1.95–7.52 | 5.24 3.24–7.24 2.70–7.77 | 9.97 5.76–14.19 4.65–15.29 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 48.06 41.27–54.85 39.60–56.52 | 52.99 46.20–59.77 44.53–61.45 | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 436 369–503 351–522 | 480 414–546 396–564 | 916 783–1050 747–1086 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.60 72.57–80.62 71.27–81.92 | 76.96 72.64–81.28 71.33–82.59 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 10.84 8.00–13.68 7.25–14.44 | 13.70 10.75–16.64 10.00–17.39 | 24.54 18.76–30.32 17.25–31.83 | 25% 68% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.38 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 2.98 0.73–5.24 0.14–5.83 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.52–3.15 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.88 1.70–6.06 1.14–6.61 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.46 2.03–4.90 1.64–5.29 | 2.85 1.29–4.40 0.87–4.83 | 6.31 3.32–9.30 2.50–10.11 | 52% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.