UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.262.84safe0.61–2.550.41–2.121.02–4.67safer0.36–2.800.18–2.340.54–5.15
Shots on target
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.024.299.31safe3.16–6.882.55–6.045.71–12.92safer2.67–7.372.08–6.504.75–13.87
Total shots
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2812.1825.47safe9.36–17.218.62–15.7517.98–32.95safer8.26–18.307.66–16.7115.93–35.00
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.906.8315.73safe5.96–11.844.15–9.5110.11–21.36safer5.13–12.673.41–10.258.54–22.92
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.773.216.98safe1.89–5.651.56–4.873.45–10.52safer1.34–6.191.07–5.362.41–11.55
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.294.199.48safe3.08–7.512.19–6.195.27–13.70safer2.51–8.081.66–6.724.16–14.80
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction52.8947.40safe46.10–59.6840.62–54.19safer44.43–61.3538.94–55.86
Passes
64%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction481436917safe414–548369–502783–1050safer395–566352–520747–1086
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction80.1475.98safe76.11–84.1771.66–80.31safer74.81–85.4670.35–81.62
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6012.2822.88safe7.77–13.449.33–15.2217.10–28.66safer7.01–14.208.58–15.9715.59–30.17
Offsides
54%
21%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.333.36safe0.88–3.200.23–2.421.11–5.62safer0.58–3.500.00–2.710.52–6.21
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.763.48safe0.67–2.770.63–2.891.30–5.66safer0.40–3.030.34–3.180.74–6.22
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.396.25safe1.43–4.301.83–4.943.26–9.24safer1.04–4.691.40–5.372.45–10.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.61–2.55 0.36–2.80 | 1.26 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.34 | 2.84 1.02–4.67 0.54–5.15 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.02 3.16–6.88 2.67–7.37 | 4.29 2.55–6.04 2.08–6.50 | 9.31 5.71–12.92 4.75–13.87 | 53% 34% |
| Total shots | 13.28 9.36–17.21 8.26–18.30 | 12.18 8.62–15.75 7.66–16.71 | 25.47 17.98–32.95 15.93–35.00 | 55% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.90 5.96–11.84 5.13–12.67 | 6.83 4.15–9.51 3.41–10.25 | 15.73 10.11–21.36 8.54–22.92 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 1.89–5.65 1.34–6.19 | 3.21 1.56–4.87 1.07–5.36 | 6.98 3.45–10.52 2.41–11.55 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.29 3.08–7.51 2.51–8.08 | 4.19 2.19–6.19 1.66–6.72 | 9.48 5.27–13.70 4.16–14.80 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 52.89 46.10–59.68 44.43–61.35 | 47.40 40.62–54.19 38.94–55.86 | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 481 414–548 395–566 | 436 369–502 352–520 | 917 783–1050 747–1086 | 64% 35% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.14 76.11–84.17 74.81–85.46 | 75.98 71.66–80.31 70.35–81.62 | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 10.60 7.77–13.44 7.01–14.20 | 12.28 9.33–15.22 8.58–15.97 | 22.88 17.10–28.66 15.59–30.17 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 1.33 0.23–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 3.36 1.11–5.62 0.52–6.21 | 54% 21% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.77 0.40–3.03 | 1.76 0.63–2.89 0.34–3.18 | 3.48 1.30–5.66 0.74–6.22 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 3.39 1.83–4.94 1.40–5.37 | 6.25 3.26–9.24 2.45–10.06 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.