UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.382.64safe0.29–2.230.52–2.230.82–4.46safer0.04–2.480.29–2.460.34–4.94
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.254.408.65safe2.39–6.112.66–6.155.05–12.26safer1.90–6.602.19–6.614.09–13.21
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1612.3625.52safe9.24–17.098.80–15.9318.04–33.01safer8.14–18.187.84–16.8915.99–35.06
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.598.3415.92safe4.64–10.535.66–11.0210.30–21.55safer3.82–11.364.92–11.768.73–23.11
Blocked shots
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.073.978.04safe2.19–5.952.32–5.634.51–11.58safer1.64–6.491.83–6.123.47–12.61
Corners
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.944.279.22safe2.73–7.162.27–6.275.00–13.43safer2.16–7.731.74–6.813.90–14.54
Possession %
53%
43%
homeawayprediction51.0848.91safe44.29–57.8742.13–55.70safer42.62–59.5440.45–57.37
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction495452946safe427–562385–518813–1080safer409–580368–536777–1116
Pass accuracy %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction67.2470.22safe63.21–71.2765.90–74.55safer61.92–72.5664.59–75.86
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5112.1223.63safe8.67–14.359.18–15.0717.85–29.42safer7.92–15.118.43–15.8216.35–30.92
Offsides
42%
24%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.443.08safe0.48–2.800.35–2.540.83–5.33safer0.18–3.100.06–2.820.24–5.92
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.064.05safe0.94–3.040.93–3.191.88–6.23safer0.68–3.310.64–3.481.32–6.79
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.695.65safe1.52–4.391.13–4.252.66–8.64safer1.13–4.780.71–4.671.84–9.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.23 0.04–2.48 | 1.38 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 34% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.11 1.90–6.60 | 4.40 2.66–6.15 2.19–6.61 | 8.65 5.05–12.26 4.09–13.21 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.16 9.24–17.09 8.14–18.18 | 12.36 8.80–15.93 7.84–16.89 | 25.52 18.04–33.01 15.99–35.06 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 7.59 4.64–10.53 3.82–11.36 | 8.34 5.66–11.02 4.92–11.76 | 15.92 10.30–21.55 8.73–23.11 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 4.07 2.19–5.95 1.64–6.49 | 3.97 2.32–5.63 1.83–6.12 | 8.04 4.51–11.58 3.47–12.61 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Corners | 4.94 2.73–7.16 2.16–7.73 | 4.27 2.27–6.27 1.74–6.81 | 9.22 5.00–13.43 3.90–14.54 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Possession % | 51.08 44.29–57.87 42.62–59.54 | 48.91 42.13–55.70 40.45–57.37 | — | 53% 43% |
| Passes | 495 427–562 409–580 | 452 385–518 368–536 | 946 813–1080 777–1116 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.24 63.21–71.27 61.92–72.56 | 70.22 65.90–74.55 64.59–75.86 | — | 33% 63% |
| Fouls | 11.51 8.67–14.35 7.92–15.11 | 12.12 9.18–15.07 8.43–15.82 | 23.63 17.85–29.42 16.35–30.92 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.44 0.35–2.54 0.06–2.82 | 3.08 0.83–5.33 0.24–5.92 | 42% 24% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.04 0.68–3.31 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 4.05 1.88–6.23 1.32–6.79 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.39 1.13–4.78 | 2.69 1.13–4.25 0.71–4.67 | 5.65 2.66–8.64 1.84–9.45 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+