UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.810.972.78safe0.84–2.780.11–1.820.96–4.60safer0.59–3.030.00–2.050.48–5.08
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.993.698.68safe3.13–6.851.95–5.435.07–12.28safer2.64–7.341.48–5.904.12–13.24
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5111.1525.65safe10.58–18.437.59–14.7118.17–33.14safer9.49–19.526.63–15.6716.12–35.19
Shots in box
74%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction9.076.0515.12safe6.13–12.023.37–8.739.50–20.74safer5.30–12.842.63–9.477.93–22.31
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.913.307.21safe2.03–5.791.65–4.953.67–10.74safer1.48–6.341.15–5.442.64–11.78
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.454.009.45safe3.23–7.662.00–6.005.24–13.66safer2.66–8.241.47–6.534.13–14.77
Possession %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction54.9746.85safe48.18–61.7640.06–53.63safer46.51–63.4338.39–55.31
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction504446951safe437–572380–513817–1084safer419–590362–530781–1120
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction73.4675.08safe69.43–77.4970.75–79.40safer68.14–78.7969.44–80.71
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0812.0824.16safe9.24–14.929.14–15.0318.38–29.94safer8.49–15.678.39–15.7716.87–31.45
Offsides
55%
21%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.283.33safe0.89–3.210.19–2.371.08–5.58safer0.59–3.510.00–2.660.49–6.17
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.983.57safe0.54–2.640.85–3.111.40–5.75safer0.28–2.910.56–3.400.84–6.31
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.383.065.44safe0.94–3.821.50–4.622.45–8.43safer0.56–4.201.08–5.041.64–9.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.84–2.78 0.59–3.03 | 0.97 0.11–1.82 0.00–2.05 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 57% 23% 20% |
| Shots on target | 4.99 3.13–6.85 2.64–7.34 | 3.69 1.95–5.43 1.48–5.90 | 8.68 5.07–12.28 4.12–13.24 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.51 10.58–18.43 9.49–19.52 | 11.15 7.59–14.71 6.63–15.67 | 25.65 18.17–33.14 16.12–35.19 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 9.07 6.13–12.02 5.30–12.84 | 6.05 3.37–8.73 2.63–9.47 | 15.12 9.50–20.74 7.93–22.31 | 74% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 2.03–5.79 1.48–6.34 | 3.30 1.65–4.95 1.15–5.44 | 7.21 3.67–10.74 2.64–11.78 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.23–7.66 2.66–8.24 | 4.00 2.00–6.00 1.47–6.53 | 9.45 5.24–13.66 4.13–14.77 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 54.97 48.18–61.76 46.51–63.43 | 46.85 40.06–53.63 38.39–55.31 | — | 66% 29% |
| Passes | 504 437–572 419–590 | 446 380–513 362–530 | 951 817–1084 781–1120 | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.46 69.43–77.49 68.14–78.79 | 75.08 70.75–79.40 69.44–80.71 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 12.08 9.24–14.92 8.49–15.67 | 12.08 9.14–15.03 8.39–15.77 | 24.16 18.38–29.94 16.87–31.45 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.59–3.51 | 1.28 0.19–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 3.33 1.08–5.58 0.49–6.17 | 55% 21% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.57 1.40–5.75 0.84–6.31 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.38 0.94–3.82 0.56–4.20 | 3.06 1.50–4.62 1.08–5.04 | 5.44 2.45–8.43 1.64–9.25 | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.