UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Patrik Kolaric
Goals
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.430.863.29safe1.47–3.390.00–1.721.47–5.12safer1.21–3.650.00–1.970.97–5.62actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
88%
homeawaytotalprediction7.092.9810.07safe5.23–8.941.27–4.696.50–13.63safer4.73–9.440.80–5.165.53–14.60actual4.006.0010.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.348.3626.70safe14.64–22.044.98–11.7419.62–33.78safer13.61–23.074.05–12.6717.66–35.75actual16.0014.0030.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction13.315.3918.70safe10.79–15.833.09–7.6913.88–23.51safer9.93–16.692.29–8.4812.22–25.18actual11.008.0019.00
Blocked shots
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.892.527.41safe3.30–6.471.11–3.944.41–10.41safer2.77–7.010.62–4.423.39–11.43actual8.003.0011.00
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction7.093.2410.33safe4.88–9.291.26–5.226.14–14.51safer4.29–9.890.72–5.755.01–15.64actual11.003.0014.00
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction64.4935.93safe58.17–70.8129.61–42.25safer56.58–72.4028.01–43.84actual63.0037.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction6593651025safe594–725301–430895–1155safer577–742283–447860–1190actual596359955
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction84.6373.29safe80.42–88.8568.78–77.79safer79.11–90.1567.45–79.12
Fouls
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction11.149.0720.21safe8.28–14.006.12–12.0114.41–26.01safer7.40–14.885.21–12.9312.60–27.81actual18.0014.0032.00
Offsides
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.613.66safe0.83–3.250.45–2.781.28–6.03safer0.49–3.600.12–3.110.61–6.71actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
24%
23%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.853.03safe0.13–2.240.73–2.970.86–5.21safer0.00–2.510.44–3.260.30–5.77actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.340.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
18%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.213.986.19safe0.80–3.632.43–5.543.22–9.16safer0.41–4.022.00–5.972.40–9.98actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.43 1.47–3.39 1.21–3.65 | 1.00 | 0.86 0.00–1.72 0.00–1.97 | 3.00 | 3.29 1.47–5.12 0.97–5.62 | 4.00 | 72% 17% |
| Shots on target | 7.09 5.23–8.94 4.73–9.44 | 4.00 | 2.98 1.27–4.69 0.80–5.16 | 6.00 | 10.07 6.50–13.63 5.53–14.60 | 10.00 | 88% |
| Total shots | 18.34 14.64–22.04 13.61–23.07 | 16.00 | 8.36 4.98–11.74 4.05–12.67 | 14.00 | 26.70 19.62–33.78 17.66–35.75 | 30.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 13.31 10.79–15.83 9.93–16.69 | 11.00 | 5.39 3.09–7.69 2.29–8.48 | 8.00 | 18.70 13.88–23.51 12.22–25.18 | 19.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 4.89 3.30–6.47 2.77–7.01 | 8.00 | 2.52 1.11–3.94 0.62–4.42 | 3.00 | 7.41 4.41–10.41 3.39–11.43 | 11.00 | 75% 14% |
| Corners | 7.09 4.88–9.29 4.29–9.89 | 11.00 | 3.24 1.26–5.22 0.72–5.75 | 3.00 | 10.33 6.14–14.51 5.01–15.64 | 14.00 | 85% |
| Possession % | 64.49 58.17–70.81 56.58–72.40 | 63.00 | 35.93 29.61–42.25 28.01–43.84 | 37.00 | — | — | 96% |
| Passes | 659 594–725 577–742 | 596 | 365 301–430 283–447 | 359 | 1025 895–1155 860–1190 | 955 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.63 80.42–88.85 79.11–90.15 | — | 73.29 68.78–77.79 67.45–79.12 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 11.14 8.28–14.00 7.40–14.88 | 18.00 | 9.07 6.12–12.01 5.21–12.93 | 14.00 | 20.21 14.41–26.01 12.60–27.81 | 32.00 | 64% 28% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.83–3.25 0.49–3.60 | 1.00 | 1.61 0.45–2.78 0.12–3.11 | 1.00 | 3.66 1.28–6.03 0.61–6.71 | 2.00 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.19 0.13–2.24 0.00–2.51 | 0.00 | 1.85 0.73–2.97 0.44–3.26 | 2.00 | 3.03 0.86–5.21 0.30–5.77 | 2.00 | 24% 23% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.21 0.80–3.63 0.41–4.02 | 3.00 | 3.98 2.43–5.54 2.00–5.97 | 3.00 | 6.19 3.22–9.16 2.40–9.98 | 6.00 | 18% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+