Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
23%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.293.04safe0.78–2.720.44–2.151.22–4.87safer0.53–2.970.21–2.380.74–5.35
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.544.299.84safe3.68–7.412.55–6.046.23–13.44safer3.19–7.892.09–6.505.28–14.40
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0411.9127.95safe12.11–19.968.35–15.4720.46–35.43safer11.02–21.057.39–16.4318.41–37.48
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction10.507.4417.94safe7.56–13.444.76–10.1212.32–23.56safer6.73–14.274.02–10.8610.75–25.13
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.363.738.09safe2.48–6.252.07–5.384.55–11.62safer1.94–6.791.58–5.873.52–12.66
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.953.779.72safe3.74–8.161.77–5.775.51–13.94safer3.16–8.741.24–6.314.40–15.05
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction52.1248.41safe45.33–58.9141.63–55.20safer43.66–60.5839.96–56.87
Passes
69%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5474861033safe480–614419–552899–1167safer462–633402–570864–1202
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction72.9374.97safe68.90–76.9670.64–79.29safer67.60–78.2569.33–80.60
Fouls
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3010.0521.35safe8.46–14.147.10–12.9915.57–27.13safer7.71–14.896.36–13.7414.06–28.64
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.393.27safe0.72–3.040.30–2.481.01–5.52safer0.42–3.340.01–2.770.42–6.11
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.723.30safe0.53–2.630.59–2.851.13–5.48safer0.27–2.900.30–3.140.57–6.04
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.576.62safe1.61–4.482.02–5.133.63–9.61safer1.22–4.871.59–5.562.81–10.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.78–2.72 0.53–2.97 | 1.29 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.38 | 3.04 1.22–4.87 0.74–5.35 | 48% 23% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.54 3.68–7.41 3.19–7.89 | 4.29 2.55–6.04 2.09–6.50 | 9.84 6.23–13.44 5.28–14.40 | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 16.04 12.11–19.96 11.02–21.05 | 11.91 8.35–15.47 7.39–16.43 | 27.95 20.46–35.43 18.41–37.48 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 10.50 7.56–13.44 6.73–14.27 | 7.44 4.76–10.12 4.02–10.86 | 17.94 12.32–23.56 10.75–25.13 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.36 2.48–6.25 1.94–6.79 | 3.73 2.07–5.38 1.58–5.87 | 8.09 4.55–11.62 3.52–12.66 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.95 3.74–8.16 3.16–8.74 | 3.77 1.77–5.77 1.24–6.31 | 9.72 5.51–13.94 4.40–15.05 | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 52.12 45.33–58.91 43.66–60.58 | 48.41 41.63–55.20 39.96–56.87 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 547 480–614 462–633 | 486 419–552 402–570 | 1033 899–1167 864–1202 | 69% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.93 68.90–76.96 67.60–78.25 | 74.97 70.64–79.29 69.33–80.60 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 11.30 8.46–14.14 7.71–14.89 | 10.05 7.10–12.99 6.36–13.74 | 21.35 15.57–27.13 14.06–28.64 | 56% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.39 0.30–2.48 0.01–2.77 | 3.27 1.01–5.52 0.42–6.11 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.27–2.90 | 1.72 0.59–2.85 0.30–3.14 | 3.30 1.13–5.48 0.57–6.04 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 3.57 2.02–5.13 1.59–5.56 | 6.62 3.63–9.61 2.81–10.42 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+