UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.152.71safe0.59–2.530.29–2.000.89–4.53safer0.34–2.780.07–2.230.41–5.01
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.139.58safe3.59–7.322.38–5.875.98–13.19safer3.10–7.811.92–6.335.02–14.14
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7410.4726.21safe11.81–19.666.91–14.0318.72–33.69safer10.72–20.755.95–14.9916.67–35.74
Shots in box
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction9.917.0516.95safe6.96–12.854.37–9.7311.33–22.58safer6.13–13.683.63–10.479.76–24.14
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.382.797.17safe2.50–6.271.13–4.443.63–10.70safer1.96–6.810.64–4.932.60–11.74
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.283.7510.03safe4.07–8.501.75–5.755.82–14.24safer3.50–9.071.21–6.284.71–15.35
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.2844.60safe48.49–62.0737.82–51.39safer46.82–63.7436.14–53.06
Passes
86%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction5814481029safe514–648382–515895–1163safer495–666364–532860–1198
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction75.0871.84safe71.05–79.1167.52–76.17safer69.76–80.4066.21–77.48
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2811.2022.49safe8.45–14.128.26–14.1516.70–28.27safer7.69–14.887.51–14.9015.20–29.77
Offsides
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.573.15safe0.42–2.740.48–2.660.90–5.41safer0.12–3.040.19–2.950.31–6.00
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.083.74safe0.61–2.710.95–3.201.56–5.92safer0.35–2.980.65–3.501.00–6.47
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.746.53safe1.35–4.222.18–5.303.54–9.52safer0.96–4.611.76–5.722.72–10.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.53 0.34–2.78 | 1.15 0.29–2.00 0.07–2.23 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.46 3.59–7.32 3.10–7.81 | 4.13 2.38–5.87 1.92–6.33 | 9.58 5.98–13.19 5.02–14.14 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.74 11.81–19.66 10.72–20.75 | 10.47 6.91–14.03 5.95–14.99 | 26.21 18.72–33.69 16.67–35.74 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 9.91 6.96–12.85 6.13–13.68 | 7.05 4.37–9.73 3.63–10.47 | 16.95 11.33–22.58 9.76–24.14 | 72% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.38 2.50–6.27 1.96–6.81 | 2.79 1.13–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 7.17 3.63–10.70 2.60–11.74 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 6.28 4.07–8.50 3.50–9.07 | 3.75 1.75–5.75 1.21–6.28 | 10.03 5.82–14.24 4.71–15.35 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 55.28 48.49–62.07 46.82–63.74 | 44.60 37.82–51.39 36.14–53.06 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 581 514–648 495–666 | 448 382–515 364–532 | 1029 895–1163 860–1198 | 86% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.08 71.05–79.11 69.76–80.40 | 71.84 67.52–76.17 66.21–77.48 | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 11.28 8.45–14.12 7.69–14.88 | 11.20 8.26–14.15 7.51–14.90 | 22.49 16.70–28.27 15.20–29.77 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.57 0.48–2.66 0.19–2.95 | 3.15 0.90–5.41 0.31–6.00 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.35–2.98 | 2.08 0.95–3.20 0.65–3.50 | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.00–6.47 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 3.74 2.18–5.30 1.76–5.72 | 6.53 3.54–9.52 2.72–10.33 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+