UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Michal Ocenas
Goals
41%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.302.78safe0.51–2.440.44–2.160.95–4.60safer0.25–2.700.20–2.410.45–5.11actual4.000.004.00
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.248.78safe2.68–6.402.53–5.955.22–12.34safer2.19–6.902.06–6.424.25–13.31actual6.006.0012.00
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3910.3722.77safe8.69–16.106.99–13.7515.68–29.85safer7.66–17.136.06–14.6813.72–31.81actual16.0017.0033.00
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.796.4316.22safe7.28–12.314.13–8.7311.40–21.04safer6.41–13.173.33–9.539.74–22.70actual11.009.0020.00
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.843.146.97safe2.25–5.421.72–4.553.97–9.97safer1.72–5.951.24–5.042.95–10.99actual3.004.007.00
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.244.409.63safe3.03–7.442.42–6.375.45–13.82safer2.44–8.041.88–6.914.32–14.95actual6.005.0011.00
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.5852.47safe41.26–53.9046.15–58.79safer39.67–55.4944.56–60.39actual53.0047.00
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction452507959safe386–517443–572829–1089safer369–535425–589794–1124actual5454891034
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction72.3377.63safe68.11–76.5473.13–82.14safer66.81–77.8571.79–83.47
Fouls
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction12.809.8322.63safe9.94–15.666.88–12.7716.83–28.43safer9.06–16.545.96–13.6915.02–30.23actual11.007.0018.00
Offsides
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.132.94safe0.60–3.020.00–2.290.56–5.31safer0.26–3.360.00–2.620.00–5.99actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.863.59safe0.67–2.780.74–2.981.41–5.76safer0.40–3.060.45–3.270.85–6.32actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.945.90safe1.54–4.371.39–4.502.93–8.87safer1.15–4.760.96–4.932.11–9.69actual6.002.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 4.00 | 1.30 0.44–2.16 0.20–2.41 | 0.00 | 2.78 0.95–4.60 0.45–5.11 | 4.00 | 41% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.40 2.19–6.90 | 6.00 | 4.24 2.53–5.95 2.06–6.42 | 6.00 | 8.78 5.22–12.34 4.25–13.31 | 12.00 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 12.39 8.69–16.10 7.66–17.13 | 16.00 | 10.37 6.99–13.75 6.06–14.68 | 17.00 | 22.77 15.68–29.85 13.72–31.81 | 33.00 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 9.79 7.28–12.31 6.41–13.17 | 11.00 | 6.43 4.13–8.73 3.33–9.53 | 9.00 | 16.22 11.40–21.04 9.74–22.70 | 20.00 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 2.25–5.42 1.72–5.95 | 3.00 | 3.14 1.72–4.55 1.24–5.04 | 4.00 | 6.97 3.97–9.97 2.95–10.99 | 7.00 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.24 3.03–7.44 2.44–8.04 | 6.00 | 4.40 2.42–6.37 1.88–6.91 | 5.00 | 9.63 5.45–13.82 4.32–14.95 | 11.00 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 47.58 41.26–53.90 39.67–55.49 | 53.00 | 52.47 46.15–58.79 44.56–60.39 | 47.00 | — | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 452 386–517 369–535 | 545 | 507 443–572 425–589 | 489 | 959 829–1089 794–1124 | 1034 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.33 68.11–76.54 66.81–77.85 | — | 77.63 73.13–82.14 71.79–83.47 | — | — | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 12.80 9.94–15.66 9.06–16.54 | 11.00 | 9.83 6.88–12.77 5.96–13.69 | 7.00 | 22.63 16.83–28.43 15.02–30.23 | 18.00 | 70% 23% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.26–3.36 | 3.00 | 1.13 0.00–2.29 0.00–2.62 | 0.00 | 2.94 0.56–5.31 0.00–5.99 | 3.00 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.67–2.78 0.40–3.06 | 0.00 | 1.86 0.74–2.98 0.45–3.27 | 1.00 | 3.59 1.41–5.76 0.85–6.32 | 1.00 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 1.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 1.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.54–4.37 1.15–4.76 | 6.00 | 2.94 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.93 | 2.00 | 5.90 2.93–8.87 2.11–9.69 | 8.00 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.