UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.422.89safe0.50–2.440.56–2.271.07–4.71safer0.25–2.690.34–2.500.59–5.19
Shots on target
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.774.739.51safe2.91–6.642.99–6.485.90–13.11safer2.42–7.132.52–6.944.95–14.07
Total shots
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4414.6529.10safe10.52–18.3711.09–18.2221.61–36.58safer9.43–19.4610.13–19.1819.56–38.63
Shots in box
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction9.569.6119.17safe6.61–12.506.93–12.2913.54–24.79safer5.78–13.336.19–13.0311.98–26.36
Blocked shots
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.674.307.96safe1.79–5.552.64–5.954.43–11.50safer1.24–6.092.15–6.443.39–12.53
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.824.4610.28safe3.60–8.032.46–6.466.06–14.49safer3.03–8.601.93–7.004.96–15.60
Possession %
50%
46%
homeawayprediction51.0250.14safe44.23–57.8143.35–56.92safer42.56–59.4841.68–58.59
Passes
51%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction460455915safe392–527389–522781–1049safer374–545371–539746–1084
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction65.7272.17safe61.69–69.7567.85–76.50safer60.40–71.0466.54–77.81
Fouls
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0212.6822.69safe7.18–12.869.73–15.6216.91–28.48safer6.42–13.618.98–16.3715.41–29.98
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.493.18safe0.54–2.860.39–2.580.93–5.44safer0.23–3.160.11–2.870.34–6.03
Yellow cards
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.462.153.61safe0.41–2.511.02–3.281.43–5.79safer0.14–2.770.73–3.570.87–6.34
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.323.126.44safe1.88–4.751.56–4.683.44–9.43safer1.49–5.141.14–5.102.63–10.24
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 1.42 0.56–2.27 0.34–2.50 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.59–5.19 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.91–6.64 2.42–7.13 | 4.73 2.99–6.48 2.52–6.94 | 9.51 5.90–13.11 4.95–14.07 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 14.44 10.52–18.37 9.43–19.46 | 14.65 11.09–18.22 10.13–19.18 | 29.10 21.61–36.58 19.56–38.63 | 45% 48% |
| Shots in box | 9.56 6.61–12.50 5.78–13.33 | 9.61 6.93–12.29 6.19–13.03 | 19.17 13.54–24.79 11.98–26.36 | 45% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 1.79–5.55 1.24–6.09 | 4.30 2.64–5.95 2.15–6.44 | 7.96 4.43–11.50 3.39–12.53 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 5.82 3.60–8.03 3.03–8.60 | 4.46 2.46–6.46 1.93–7.00 | 10.28 6.06–14.49 4.96–15.60 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.02 44.23–57.81 42.56–59.48 | 50.14 43.35–56.92 41.68–58.59 | — | 50% 46% |
| Passes | 460 392–527 374–545 | 455 389–522 371–539 | 915 781–1049 746–1084 | 51% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.72 61.69–69.75 60.40–71.04 | 72.17 67.85–76.50 66.54–77.81 | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 10.02 7.18–12.86 6.42–13.61 | 12.68 9.73–15.62 8.98–16.37 | 22.69 16.91–28.48 15.41–29.98 | 25% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.23–3.16 | 1.49 0.39–2.58 0.11–2.87 | 3.18 0.93–5.44 0.34–6.03 | 43% 23% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.41–2.51 0.14–2.77 | 2.15 1.02–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 3.61 1.43–5.79 0.87–6.34 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.32 1.88–4.75 1.49–5.14 | 3.12 1.56–4.68 1.14–5.10 | 6.44 3.44–9.43 2.63–10.24 | 45% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+