UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
20%
22%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.963.03safe0.10–2.041.10–2.811.20–4.85safer0.00–2.290.87–3.040.72–5.33
Shots on target
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.705.659.35safe1.84–5.563.91–7.395.75–12.96safer1.35–6.053.44–7.864.79–13.91
Total shots
20%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0914.9426.03safe7.17–15.0211.38–18.5018.54–33.52safer6.07–16.1110.42–19.4616.49–35.57
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction6.939.6216.55safe3.99–9.876.94–12.3010.93–22.17safer3.16–10.706.20–13.049.36–23.74
Blocked shots
32%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.666.65safe1.11–4.872.01–5.313.11–10.19safer0.56–5.421.51–5.802.08–11.22
Corners
26%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction4.075.609.67safe1.86–6.293.60–7.605.46–13.88safer1.28–6.863.07–8.134.35–14.99
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction43.7256.79safe36.93–50.5150.01–63.58safer35.26–52.1848.34–65.25
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction411533944safe344–478467–600810–1078safer325–496449–617775–1113
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction76.9380.72safe72.90–80.9676.40–85.04safer71.61–82.2575.09–86.35
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0811.6722.75safe8.25–13.928.72–14.6116.97–28.53safer7.49–14.687.97–15.3615.46–30.04
Offsides
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.963.56safe0.44–2.760.87–3.061.31–5.82safer0.14–3.060.58–3.350.72–6.41
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.893.55safe0.61–2.710.76–3.021.37–5.73safer0.34–2.970.47–3.310.81–6.28
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
56%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.532.626.15safe2.09–4.961.06–4.183.15–9.14safer1.70–5.350.64–4.602.34–9.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.10–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 1.96 1.10–2.81 0.87–3.04 | 3.03 1.20–4.85 0.72–5.33 | 20% 22% 58% |
| Shots on target | 3.70 1.84–5.56 1.35–6.05 | 5.65 3.91–7.39 3.44–7.86 | 9.35 5.75–12.96 4.79–13.91 | 21% 68% |
| Total shots | 11.09 7.17–15.02 6.07–16.11 | 14.94 11.38–18.50 10.42–19.46 | 26.03 18.54–33.52 16.49–35.57 | 20% 74% |
| Shots in box | 6.93 3.99–9.87 3.16–10.70 | 9.62 6.94–12.30 6.20–13.04 | 16.55 10.93–22.17 9.36–23.74 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 2.99 1.11–4.87 0.56–5.42 | 3.66 2.01–5.31 1.51–5.80 | 6.65 3.11–10.19 2.08–11.22 | 32% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 4.07 1.86–6.29 1.28–6.86 | 5.60 3.60–7.60 3.07–8.13 | 9.67 5.46–13.88 4.35–14.99 | 26% 63% |
| Possession % | 43.72 36.93–50.51 35.26–52.18 | 56.79 50.01–63.58 48.34–65.25 | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 411 344–478 325–496 | 533 467–600 449–617 | 944 810–1078 775–1113 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.93 72.90–80.96 71.61–82.25 | 80.72 76.40–85.04 75.09–86.35 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 11.08 8.25–13.92 7.49–14.68 | 11.67 8.72–14.61 7.97–15.36 | 22.75 16.97–28.53 15.46–30.04 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.06 | 1.96 0.87–3.06 0.58–3.35 | 3.56 1.31–5.82 0.72–6.41 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.34–2.97 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.55 1.37–5.73 0.81–6.28 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.53 2.09–4.96 1.70–5.35 | 2.62 1.06–4.18 0.64–4.60 | 6.15 3.15–9.14 2.34–9.95 | 56% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+