UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
24%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.142.89safe0.79–2.720.29–1.991.07–4.72safer0.54–2.970.06–2.220.59–5.20
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.323.919.23safe3.45–7.182.17–5.655.62–12.83safer2.96–7.671.70–6.124.67–13.79
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4010.8625.26safe10.47–18.327.30–14.4217.77–32.74safer9.38–19.416.34–15.3815.72–34.79
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.196.2815.47safe6.25–12.133.60–8.969.85–21.10safer5.42–12.962.87–9.708.28–22.66
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.692.486.17safe1.81–5.570.82–4.132.63–9.70safer1.26–6.110.33–4.621.59–10.74
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.803.889.68safe3.58–8.011.88–5.885.47–13.89safer3.01–8.591.35–6.424.36–15.00
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction52.3847.66safe45.59–59.1840.87–54.44safer43.92–60.8439.20–56.12
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction492434926safe425–559368–501793–1060safer407–577350–518757–1096
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction79.1674.82safe75.13–83.1970.50–79.14safer73.84–84.4869.19–80.45
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3611.2221.58safe7.52–13.208.28–14.1615.80–27.36safer6.77–13.957.53–14.9114.29–28.87
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.693.52safe0.66–2.980.60–2.791.26–5.77safer0.36–3.280.31–3.080.67–6.36
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.863.39safe0.48–2.580.73–2.991.21–5.57safer0.22–2.850.44–3.280.66–6.13
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.476.08safe1.18–4.051.91–5.023.09–9.08safer0.79–4.441.49–5.452.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.79–2.72 0.54–2.97 | 1.14 0.29–1.99 0.06–2.22 | 2.89 1.07–4.72 0.59–5.20 | 52% 24% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.32 3.45–7.18 2.96–7.67 | 3.91 2.17–5.65 1.70–6.12 | 9.23 5.62–12.83 4.67–13.79 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.40 10.47–18.32 9.38–19.41 | 10.86 7.30–14.42 6.34–15.38 | 25.26 17.77–32.74 15.72–34.79 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 9.19 6.25–12.13 5.42–12.96 | 6.28 3.60–8.96 2.87–9.70 | 15.47 9.85–21.10 8.28–22.66 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 1.81–5.57 1.26–6.11 | 2.48 0.82–4.13 0.33–4.62 | 6.17 2.63–9.70 1.59–10.74 | 61% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 5.80 3.58–8.01 3.01–8.59 | 3.88 1.88–5.88 1.35–6.42 | 9.68 5.47–13.89 4.36–15.00 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 52.38 45.59–59.18 43.92–60.84 | 47.66 40.87–54.44 39.20–56.12 | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 492 425–559 407–577 | 434 368–501 350–518 | 926 793–1060 757–1096 | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.16 75.13–83.19 73.84–84.48 | 74.82 70.50–79.14 69.19–80.45 | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 10.36 7.52–13.20 6.77–13.95 | 11.22 8.28–14.16 7.53–14.91 | 21.58 15.80–27.36 14.29–28.87 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.66–2.98 0.36–3.28 | 1.69 0.60–2.79 0.31–3.08 | 3.52 1.26–5.77 0.67–6.36 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.22–2.85 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.39 1.21–5.57 0.66–6.13 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.47 1.91–5.02 1.49–5.45 | 6.08 3.09–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.