UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.232.55safe0.36–2.290.37–2.080.73–4.37safer0.11–2.550.14–2.310.25–4.85
Shots on target
52%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.633.948.57safe2.76–6.492.20–5.684.96–12.17safer2.27–6.981.73–6.154.00–13.13
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1411.6425.78safe10.22–18.078.08–15.2018.29–33.27safer9.13–19.167.12–16.1616.24–35.32
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.546.9315.47safe5.60–11.484.25–9.619.85–21.10safer4.77–12.313.51–10.358.28–22.66
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.493.737.22safe1.60–5.372.08–5.383.68–10.75safer1.06–5.911.58–5.872.65–11.79
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.244.209.44safe3.03–7.462.20–6.205.23–13.65safer2.46–8.031.66–6.734.12–14.76
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.7352.51safe40.94–54.5245.73–59.30safer39.27–56.1944.05–60.97
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction395510906safe328–462444–577772–1039safer310–481426–594736–1075
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction75.9781.44safe71.94–80.0077.11–85.76safer70.65–81.2975.80–87.07
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8712.2025.07safe10.03–15.719.26–15.1519.29–30.85safer9.28–16.478.51–15.8917.79–32.36
Offsides
37%
24%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.583.12safe0.39–2.710.48–2.670.87–5.38safer0.08–3.010.20–2.960.28–5.97
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.953.71safe0.71–2.810.82–3.081.53–5.89safer0.45–3.080.53–3.370.97–6.45
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
34%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.703.195.89safe1.26–4.141.64–4.752.90–8.88safer0.88–4.521.21–5.172.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.29 0.11–2.55 | 1.23 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.55 0.73–4.37 0.25–4.85 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.76–6.49 2.27–6.98 | 3.94 2.20–5.68 1.73–6.15 | 8.57 4.96–12.17 4.00–13.13 | 52% 13% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.14 10.22–18.07 9.13–19.16 | 11.64 8.08–15.20 7.12–16.16 | 25.78 18.29–33.27 16.24–35.32 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 8.54 5.60–11.48 4.77–12.31 | 6.93 4.25–9.61 3.51–10.35 | 15.47 9.85–21.10 8.28–22.66 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.60–5.37 1.06–5.91 | 3.73 2.08–5.38 1.58–5.87 | 7.22 3.68–10.75 2.65–11.79 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 5.24 3.03–7.46 2.46–8.03 | 4.20 2.20–6.20 1.66–6.73 | 9.44 5.23–13.65 4.12–14.76 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 47.73 40.94–54.52 39.27–56.19 | 52.51 45.73–59.30 44.05–60.97 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 395 328–462 310–481 | 510 444–577 426–594 | 906 772–1039 736–1075 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.97 71.94–80.00 70.65–81.29 | 81.44 77.11–85.76 75.80–87.07 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 12.87 10.03–15.71 9.28–16.47 | 12.20 9.26–15.15 8.51–15.89 | 25.07 19.29–30.85 17.79–32.36 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.08–3.01 | 1.58 0.48–2.67 0.20–2.96 | 3.12 0.87–5.38 0.28–5.97 | 37% 24% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.45–3.08 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.97–6.45 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.26–4.14 0.88–4.52 | 3.19 1.64–4.75 1.21–5.17 | 5.89 2.90–8.88 2.09–9.70 | 34% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.