UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.182.55safe0.40–2.330.33–2.040.73–4.37safer0.14–2.580.10–2.270.25–4.85
Shots on target
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.134.269.39safe3.27–7.002.52–6.005.79–13.00safer2.78–7.492.05–6.474.83–13.95
Total shots
75%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9311.9427.88safe12.01–19.868.38–15.5120.39–35.36safer10.91–20.957.42–16.4718.34–37.41
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction8.737.2515.98safe5.78–11.674.57–9.9410.36–21.60safer4.95–12.503.84–10.678.79–23.17
Blocked shots
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.617.80safe2.31–6.071.96–5.274.27–11.34safer1.76–6.611.47–5.763.23–12.37
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.504.459.95safe3.29–7.712.45–6.455.73–14.16safer2.71–8.291.91–6.984.63–15.27
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction53.9447.38safe47.15–60.7340.60–54.16safer45.48–62.4038.92–55.84
Passes
63%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction440398838safe373–507332–465704–972safer354–525314–482669–1007
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction74.0774.14safe70.04–78.1069.82–78.46safer68.75–79.3968.51–79.77
Fouls
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2912.4526.73safe11.45–17.129.50–15.3920.95–32.51safer10.69–17.888.75–16.1419.45–34.02
Offsides
41%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.533.17safe0.48–2.800.44–2.630.92–5.43safer0.18–3.100.15–2.910.33–6.02
Yellow cards
40%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.823.67safe0.79–2.890.70–2.951.49–5.85safer0.53–3.160.40–3.240.93–6.40
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
31%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.556.34safe1.36–4.231.99–5.113.35–9.34safer0.97–4.621.57–5.532.54–10.15
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.40–2.33 0.14–2.58 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.27 | 2.55 0.73–4.37 0.25–4.85 | 41% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.13 3.27–7.00 2.78–7.49 | 4.26 2.52–6.00 2.05–6.47 | 9.39 5.79–13.00 4.83–13.95 | 55% 33% |
| Total shots | 15.93 12.01–19.86 10.91–20.95 | 11.94 8.38–15.51 7.42–16.47 | 27.88 20.39–35.36 18.34–37.41 | 75% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.73 5.78–11.67 4.95–12.50 | 7.25 4.57–9.94 3.84–10.67 | 15.98 10.36–21.60 8.79–23.17 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.31–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 3.61 1.96–5.27 1.47–5.76 | 7.80 4.27–11.34 3.23–12.37 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.50 3.29–7.71 2.71–8.29 | 4.45 2.45–6.45 1.91–6.98 | 9.95 5.73–14.16 4.63–15.27 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 53.94 47.15–60.73 45.48–62.40 | 47.38 40.60–54.16 38.92–55.84 | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 440 373–507 354–525 | 398 332–465 314–482 | 838 704–972 669–1007 | 63% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.07 70.04–78.10 68.75–79.39 | 74.14 69.82–78.46 68.51–79.77 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 14.29 11.45–17.12 10.69–17.88 | 12.45 9.50–15.39 8.75–16.14 | 26.73 20.95–32.51 19.45–34.02 | 60% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.53 0.44–2.63 0.15–2.91 | 3.17 0.92–5.43 0.33–6.02 | 41% 24% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.53–3.16 | 1.82 0.70–2.95 0.40–3.24 | 3.67 1.49–5.85 0.93–6.40 | 40% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.36–4.23 0.97–4.62 | 3.55 1.99–5.11 1.57–5.53 | 6.34 3.35–9.34 2.54–10.15 | 31% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.