UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.312.66safe0.39–2.320.45–2.160.84–4.49safer0.14–2.580.23–2.390.36–4.97
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.403.828.22safe2.54–6.262.08–5.564.62–11.83safer2.05–6.751.61–6.033.66–12.78
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2710.4023.67safe9.34–17.196.83–13.9616.18–31.15safer8.25–18.295.88–14.9214.13–33.20
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.526.9415.46safe5.58–11.464.26–9.629.84–21.09safer4.75–12.293.53–10.368.27–22.65
Blocked shots
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.552.836.38safe1.67–5.431.18–4.492.85–9.92safer1.12–5.970.69–4.981.81–10.95
Corners
53%
13%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.934.209.13safe2.71–7.142.20–6.204.91–13.34safer2.14–7.711.67–6.743.81–14.45
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction52.2146.85safe45.42–59.0040.07–53.64safer43.75–60.6738.39–55.31
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction452409861safe385–520343–475728–995safer367–538325–493692–1031
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction74.3572.88safe70.32–78.3868.55–77.20safer69.03–79.6767.24–78.51
Fouls
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5811.4124.99safe10.75–16.428.47–14.3619.21–30.78safer9.99–17.187.72–15.1017.71–32.28
Offsides
44%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.723.68safe0.80–3.120.63–2.821.43–5.94safer0.50–3.420.34–3.110.84–6.52
Yellow cards
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.863.84safe0.93–3.030.74–2.991.67–6.02safer0.66–3.290.44–3.281.11–6.58
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
34%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.542.965.49safe1.10–3.971.40–4.522.50–8.49safer0.71–4.360.98–4.941.69–9.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.32 0.14–2.58 | 1.31 0.45–2.16 0.23–2.39 | 2.66 0.84–4.49 0.36–4.97 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.40 2.54–6.26 2.05–6.75 | 3.82 2.08–5.56 1.61–6.03 | 8.22 4.62–11.83 3.66–12.78 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.27 9.34–17.19 8.25–18.29 | 10.40 6.83–13.96 5.88–14.92 | 23.67 16.18–31.15 14.13–33.20 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 8.52 5.58–11.46 4.75–12.29 | 6.94 4.26–9.62 3.53–10.36 | 15.46 9.84–21.09 8.27–22.65 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 3.55 1.67–5.43 1.12–5.97 | 2.83 1.18–4.49 0.69–4.98 | 6.38 2.85–9.92 1.81–10.95 | 53% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 4.93 2.71–7.14 2.14–7.71 | 4.20 2.20–6.20 1.67–6.74 | 9.13 4.91–13.34 3.81–14.45 | 53% 13% 34% |
| Possession % | 52.21 45.42–59.00 43.75–60.67 | 46.85 40.07–53.64 38.39–55.31 | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 452 385–520 367–538 | 409 343–475 325–493 | 861 728–995 692–1031 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.35 70.32–78.38 69.03–79.67 | 72.88 68.55–77.20 67.24–78.51 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 13.58 10.75–16.42 9.99–17.18 | 11.41 8.47–14.36 7.72–15.10 | 24.99 19.21–30.78 17.71–32.28 | 63% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 1.72 0.63–2.82 0.34–3.11 | 3.68 1.43–5.94 0.84–6.52 | 44% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.66–3.29 | 1.86 0.74–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.84 1.67–6.02 1.11–6.58 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.10–3.97 0.71–4.36 | 2.96 1.40–4.52 0.98–4.94 | 5.49 2.50–8.49 1.69–9.30 | 34% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+