UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: John Brooks · England
Goals
24%
23%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.772.88safe0.15–2.080.91–2.621.06–4.70safer0.00–2.340.66–2.870.55–5.21actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
27%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.415.9110.32safe2.55–6.274.21–7.626.76–13.89safer2.05–6.773.74–8.095.79–14.85actual2.001.003.00
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8913.6424.53safe7.18–14.5910.26–17.0217.44–31.61safer6.15–15.629.33–17.9515.48–33.57actual15.007.0022.00
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.248.9716.21safe4.72–9.756.67–11.2711.39–21.02safer3.86–10.625.87–12.079.73–22.68actual7.005.0012.00
Blocked shots
35%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.226.02safe1.22–4.381.81–4.633.02–9.02safer0.68–4.921.32–5.122.00–10.04actual9.001.0010.00
Corners
35%
13%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.224.929.14safe2.02–6.432.94–6.904.96–13.33safer1.42–7.022.40–7.433.83–14.46actual6.002.008.00
Possession %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction44.9255.23safe38.60–51.2348.91–61.54safer37.00–52.8347.31–63.14actual66.0034.00
Passes
16%
84%
homeawaytotalprediction364479842safe298–429414–543712–972safer281–447397–561677–1007actual6913491040
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction73.2481.03safe69.03–77.4676.52–85.54safer67.72–78.7675.19–86.87actual89.0075.00
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9212.2924.21safe9.06–14.779.35–15.2418.41–30.01safer8.17–15.668.43–16.1516.60–31.81actual10.0013.0023.00
Offsides
47%
20%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.271.884.15safe1.07–3.480.72–3.041.78–6.53safer0.72–3.830.38–3.371.10–7.20actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
45%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.081.823.90safe1.02–3.130.70–2.941.72–6.08safer0.75–3.410.41–3.231.16–6.64actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.450.00–0.86actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.892.566.45safe2.48–5.311.01–4.123.49–9.42safer2.09–5.700.58–4.552.66–10.24actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.15–2.08 0.00–2.34 | 0.00 | 1.77 0.91–2.62 0.66–2.87 | 0.00 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.55–5.21 | 0.00 | 24% 23% 53% |
| Shots on target | 4.41 2.55–6.27 2.05–6.77 | 2.00 | 5.91 4.21–7.62 3.74–8.09 | 1.00 | 10.32 6.76–13.89 5.79–14.85 | 3.00 | 27% 62% |
| Total shots | 10.89 7.18–14.59 6.15–15.62 | 15.00 | 13.64 10.26–17.02 9.33–17.95 | 7.00 | 24.53 17.44–31.61 15.48–33.57 | 22.00 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 7.24 4.72–9.75 3.86–10.62 | 7.00 | 8.97 6.67–11.27 5.87–12.07 | 5.00 | 16.21 11.39–21.02 9.73–22.68 | 12.00 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 2.80 1.22–4.38 0.68–4.92 | 9.00 | 3.22 1.81–4.63 1.32–5.12 | 1.00 | 6.02 3.02–9.02 2.00–10.04 | 10.00 | 35% 16% 48% |
| Corners | 4.22 2.02–6.43 1.42–7.02 | 6.00 | 4.92 2.94–6.90 2.40–7.43 | 2.00 | 9.14 4.96–13.33 3.83–14.46 | 8.00 | 35% 13% 52% |
| Possession % | 44.92 38.60–51.23 37.00–52.83 | 66.00 | 55.23 48.91–61.54 47.31–63.14 | 34.00 | — | — | 24% 72% |
| Passes | 364 298–429 281–447 | 691 | 479 414–543 397–561 | 349 | 842 712–972 677–1007 | 1040 | 16% 84% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.24 69.03–77.46 67.72–78.76 | 89.00 | 81.03 76.52–85.54 75.19–86.87 | 75.00 | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 11.92 9.06–14.77 8.17–15.66 | 10.00 | 12.29 9.35–15.24 8.43–16.15 | 13.00 | 24.21 18.41–30.01 16.60–31.81 | 23.00 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.27 1.07–3.48 0.72–3.83 | 1.00 | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.38–3.37 | 1.00 | 4.15 1.78–6.53 1.10–7.20 | 2.00 | 47% 20% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.02–3.13 0.75–3.41 | 0.00 | 1.82 0.70–2.94 0.41–3.23 | 0.00 | 3.90 1.72–6.08 1.16–6.64 | 0.00 | 45% 21% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.89 2.48–5.31 2.09–5.70 | 1.00 | 2.56 1.01–4.12 0.58–4.55 | 2.00 | 6.45 3.49–9.42 2.66–10.24 | 3.00 | 63% 14% 23% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+