UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
24%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.563.05safe0.52–2.460.71–2.411.23–4.87safer0.27–2.710.48–2.640.75–5.35
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.689.99safe3.44–7.162.94–6.436.38–13.59safer2.95–7.652.48–6.895.43–14.55
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3412.5026.84safe10.42–18.278.94–16.0619.35–34.33safer9.33–19.367.98–17.0217.30–36.38
Shots in box
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction9.748.6318.37safe6.79–12.685.95–11.3112.74–23.99safer5.96–13.515.21–12.0511.18–25.56
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.973.807.78safe2.09–5.862.15–5.464.24–11.31safer1.55–6.401.66–5.953.21–12.35
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.044.929.96safe2.83–7.262.92–6.925.75–14.18safer2.25–7.832.39–7.464.64–15.28
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.9350.87safe43.14–56.7244.09–57.66safer41.47–58.3942.42–59.33
Passes
43%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction424445869safe357–491378–511735–1002safer339–509361–529699–1038
Pass accuracy %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction70.4172.58safe66.38–74.4468.26–76.91safer65.09–75.7366.95–78.22
Fouls
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9511.0224.97safe11.12–16.798.08–13.9719.19–30.76safer10.36–17.557.33–14.7117.69–32.26
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.643.47safe0.68–3.000.54–2.731.22–5.73safer0.38–3.300.25–3.020.63–6.32
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.003.99safe0.93–3.030.88–3.131.81–6.16safer0.67–3.300.58–3.431.25–6.72
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
32%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.776.84safe1.63–4.502.21–5.333.84–9.83safer1.24–4.891.79–5.753.03–10.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.52–2.46 0.27–2.71 | 1.56 0.71–2.41 0.48–2.64 | 3.05 1.23–4.87 0.75–5.35 | 36% 24% 39% |
| Shots on target | 5.30 3.44–7.16 2.95–7.65 | 4.68 2.94–6.43 2.48–6.89 | 9.99 6.38–13.59 5.43–14.55 | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.34 10.42–18.27 9.33–19.36 | 12.50 8.94–16.06 7.98–17.02 | 26.84 19.35–34.33 17.30–36.38 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.74 6.79–12.68 5.96–13.51 | 8.63 5.95–11.31 5.21–12.05 | 18.37 12.74–23.99 11.18–25.56 | 56% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 2.09–5.86 1.55–6.40 | 3.80 2.15–5.46 1.66–5.95 | 7.78 4.24–11.31 3.21–12.35 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 5.04 2.83–7.26 2.25–7.83 | 4.92 2.92–6.92 2.39–7.46 | 9.96 5.75–14.18 4.64–15.28 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 49.93 43.14–56.72 41.47–58.39 | 50.87 44.09–57.66 42.42–59.33 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 424 357–491 339–509 | 445 378–511 361–529 | 869 735–1002 699–1038 | 43% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.41 66.38–74.44 65.09–75.73 | 72.58 68.26–76.91 66.95–78.22 | — | 37% 59% |
| Fouls | 13.95 11.12–16.79 10.36–17.55 | 11.02 8.08–13.97 7.33–14.71 | 24.97 19.19–30.76 17.69–32.26 | 69% 25% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.38–3.30 | 1.64 0.54–2.73 0.25–3.02 | 3.47 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.67–3.30 | 2.00 0.88–3.13 0.58–3.43 | 3.99 1.81–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.63–4.50 1.24–4.89 | 3.77 2.21–5.33 1.79–5.75 | 6.84 3.84–9.83 3.03–10.64 | 32% 15% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.