UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 2·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 2·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.582.93safe0.38–2.320.73–2.441.11–4.75safer0.13–2.570.50–2.670.63–5.23
Shots on target
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.885.1910.07safe3.02–6.753.45–6.936.47–13.68safer2.53–7.242.98–7.405.51–14.63
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7313.1126.85safe9.81–17.669.55–16.6819.36–34.34safer8.72–18.758.59–17.6417.31–36.39
Shots in box
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction9.298.7818.06safe6.34–12.236.09–11.4612.44–23.68safer5.51–13.065.36–12.1910.87–25.25
Blocked shots
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.794.017.80safe1.91–5.672.36–5.674.27–11.34safer1.37–6.221.87–6.163.23–12.38
Corners
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.664.889.54safe2.45–6.882.88–6.885.32–13.75safer1.88–7.452.34–7.414.22–14.86
Possession %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction45.2756.08safe38.48–52.0649.29–62.86safer36.81–53.7347.62–64.53
Passes
20%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction384483867safe317–451417–550734–1001safer299–470399–567698–1037
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction71.3277.36safe67.29–75.3573.03–81.68safer66.00–76.6471.72–82.99
Fouls
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4511.0825.54safe11.62–17.298.14–14.0319.76–31.32safer10.86–18.057.39–14.7818.25–32.83
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.623.74safe0.96–3.280.53–2.721.49–6.00safer0.66–3.580.24–3.000.90–6.59
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.242.174.42safe1.19–3.291.05–3.302.24–6.59safer0.93–3.560.75–3.601.68–7.15
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.613.427.03safe2.17–5.041.87–4.984.04–10.02safer1.78–5.431.44–5.403.23–10.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.58 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.67 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.63–5.23 | 33% 24% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.02–6.75 2.53–7.24 | 5.19 3.45–6.93 2.98–7.40 | 10.07 6.47–13.68 5.51–14.63 | 40% 47% |
| Total shots | 13.73 9.81–17.66 8.72–18.75 | 13.11 9.55–16.68 8.59–17.64 | 26.85 19.36–34.34 17.31–36.39 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 9.29 6.34–12.23 5.51–13.06 | 8.78 6.09–11.46 5.36–12.19 | 18.06 12.44–23.68 10.87–25.25 | 50% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.91–5.67 1.37–6.22 | 4.01 2.36–5.67 1.87–6.16 | 7.80 4.27–11.34 3.23–12.38 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Corners | 4.66 2.45–6.88 1.88–7.45 | 4.88 2.88–6.88 2.34–7.41 | 9.54 5.32–13.75 4.22–14.86 | 41% 13% 46% |
| Possession % | 45.27 38.48–52.06 36.81–53.73 | 56.08 49.29–62.86 47.62–64.53 | — | 24% 72% |
| Passes | 384 317–451 299–470 | 483 417–550 399–567 | 867 734–1001 698–1037 | 20% 79% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.32 67.29–75.35 66.00–76.64 | 77.36 73.03–81.68 71.72–82.99 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 14.45 11.62–17.29 10.86–18.05 | 11.08 8.14–14.03 7.39–14.78 | 25.54 19.76–31.32 18.25–32.83 | 72% 22% |
| Offsides | 2.12 0.96–3.28 0.66–3.58 | 1.62 0.53–2.72 0.24–3.00 | 3.74 1.49–6.00 0.90–6.59 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.29 0.93–3.56 | 2.17 1.05–3.30 0.75–3.60 | 4.42 2.24–6.59 1.68–7.15 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.61 2.17–5.04 1.78–5.43 | 3.42 1.87–4.98 1.44–5.40 | 7.03 4.04–10.02 3.23–10.83 | 45% 15% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.