UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
60%
21%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.013.01safe1.03–2.960.16–1.871.18–4.83safer0.78–3.210.00–2.090.70–5.31
Shots on target
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.044.1310.16safe4.18–7.902.38–5.876.56–13.77safer3.69–8.391.92–6.335.60–14.72
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction17.9311.2329.16safe14.01–21.867.67–14.7921.68–36.65safer12.92–22.956.71–15.7519.63–38.70
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction12.147.2519.39safe9.20–15.084.57–9.9313.77–25.01safer8.37–15.913.84–10.6712.20–26.58
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.073.098.17safe3.19–6.961.44–4.754.63–11.70safer2.65–7.500.95–5.243.60–12.74
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.364.1710.53safe4.15–8.572.17–6.176.32–14.75safer3.57–9.151.64–6.705.21–15.85
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction58.5542.89safe51.76–65.3436.10–49.67safer50.09–67.0134.43–51.34
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction472336808safe405–539270–403675–942safer387–557252–420639–978
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction71.9865.96safe67.95–76.0161.64–70.28safer66.66–77.3060.33–71.59
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1712.8024.97safe9.33–15.019.86–15.7519.19–30.76safer8.58–15.769.11–16.5017.69–32.26
Offsides
46%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.503.33safe0.67–2.990.41–2.601.08–5.59safer0.37–3.290.12–2.880.49–6.18
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.204.13safe0.88–2.981.07–3.331.96–6.31safer0.62–3.250.78–3.621.40–6.87
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
25%
14%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.794.036.83safe1.36–4.232.48–5.593.83–9.82safer0.97–4.622.05–6.013.02–10.63
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 1.03–2.96 0.78–3.21 | 1.01 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.09 | 3.01 1.18–4.83 0.70–5.31 | 60% 21% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.04 4.18–7.90 3.69–8.39 | 4.13 2.38–5.87 1.92–6.33 | 10.16 6.56–13.77 5.60–14.72 | 67% 22% |
| Total shots | 17.93 14.01–21.86 12.92–22.95 | 11.23 7.67–14.79 6.71–15.75 | 29.16 21.68–36.65 19.63–38.70 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 12.14 9.20–15.08 8.37–15.91 | 7.25 4.57–9.93 3.84–10.67 | 19.39 13.77–25.01 12.20–26.58 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 5.07 3.19–6.96 2.65–7.50 | 3.09 1.44–4.75 0.95–5.24 | 8.17 4.63–11.70 3.60–12.74 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 6.36 4.15–8.57 3.57–9.15 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.64–6.70 | 10.53 6.32–14.75 5.21–15.85 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 58.55 51.76–65.34 50.09–67.01 | 42.89 36.10–49.67 34.43–51.34 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 472 405–539 387–557 | 336 270–403 252–420 | 808 675–942 639–978 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.98 67.95–76.01 66.66–77.30 | 65.96 61.64–70.28 60.33–71.59 | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 12.17 9.33–15.01 8.58–15.76 | 12.80 9.86–15.75 9.11–16.50 | 24.97 19.19–30.76 17.69–32.26 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.50 0.41–2.60 0.12–2.88 | 3.33 1.08–5.59 0.49–6.18 | 46% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.98 0.62–3.25 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 4.13 1.96–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.36–4.23 0.97–4.62 | 4.03 2.48–5.59 2.05–6.01 | 6.83 3.83–9.82 3.02–10.63 | 25% 14% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.