UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.482.80safe0.35–2.290.63–2.340.98–4.62safer0.10–2.540.40–2.570.50–5.10
Shots on target
39%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.204.548.75safe2.34–6.072.80–6.285.14–12.35safer1.85–6.562.33–6.754.18–13.31
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3212.5025.82safe9.39–17.248.94–16.0618.33–33.30safer8.30–18.337.98–17.0216.28–35.35
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction7.878.0715.94safe4.93–10.815.39–10.7510.31–21.56safer4.10–11.644.65–11.498.75–23.13
Blocked shots
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.513.476.98safe1.62–5.391.82–5.123.44–10.51safer1.08–5.931.33–5.622.41–11.55
Corners
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.685.269.94safe2.47–6.903.26–7.265.73–14.16safer1.90–7.472.73–7.794.62–15.27
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.4852.97safe40.69–54.2746.19–59.76safer39.02–55.9444.52–61.43
Passes
39%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction424459883safe357–491392–525749–1016safer339–510375–543713–1052
Pass accuracy %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction72.2574.61safe68.22–76.2870.29–78.94safer66.93–77.5768.98–80.25
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6711.4123.08safe8.83–14.518.47–14.3617.30–28.86safer8.08–15.267.72–15.1015.79–30.37
Offsides
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.402.77safe0.22–2.540.30–2.490.52–5.03safer0.00–2.840.01–2.780.00–5.61
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.063.73safe0.62–2.720.93–3.191.56–5.91safer0.36–2.990.64–3.481.00–6.47
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
45%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.982.795.77safe1.54–4.411.24–4.352.78–8.76safer1.15–4.800.81–4.771.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.48 0.63–2.34 0.40–2.57 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 34% 25% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.20 2.34–6.07 1.85–6.56 | 4.54 2.80–6.28 2.33–6.75 | 8.75 5.14–12.35 4.18–13.31 | 39% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 13.32 9.39–17.24 8.30–18.33 | 12.50 8.94–16.06 7.98–17.02 | 25.82 18.33–33.30 16.28–35.35 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 7.87 4.93–10.81 4.10–11.64 | 8.07 5.39–10.75 4.65–11.49 | 15.94 10.31–21.56 8.75–23.13 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.62–5.39 1.08–5.93 | 3.47 1.82–5.12 1.33–5.62 | 6.98 3.44–10.51 2.41–11.55 | 43% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 4.68 2.47–6.90 1.90–7.47 | 5.26 3.26–7.26 2.73–7.79 | 9.94 5.73–14.16 4.62–15.27 | 37% 51% |
| Possession % | 47.48 40.69–54.27 39.02–55.94 | 52.97 46.19–59.76 44.52–61.43 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 424 357–491 339–510 | 459 392–525 375–543 | 883 749–1016 713–1052 | 39% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.25 68.22–76.28 66.93–77.57 | 74.61 70.29–78.94 68.98–80.25 | — | 36% 60% |
| Fouls | 11.67 8.83–14.51 8.08–15.26 | 11.41 8.47–14.36 7.72–15.10 | 23.08 17.30–28.86 15.79–30.37 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 1.40 0.30–2.49 0.01–2.78 | 2.77 0.52–5.03 0.00–5.61 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.36–2.99 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.73 1.56–5.91 1.00–6.47 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.98 1.54–4.41 1.15–4.80 | 2.79 1.24–4.35 0.81–4.77 | 5.77 2.78–8.76 1.96–9.57 | 45% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.