UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.472.62safe0.18–2.120.61–2.320.79–4.44safer0.00–2.370.38–2.550.31–4.92
Shots on target
34%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.864.588.44safe2.00–5.722.84–6.324.84–12.05safer1.51–6.212.37–6.793.88–13.00
Total shots
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2312.7123.94safe7.31–15.169.15–16.2716.46–31.43safer6.22–16.258.19–17.2314.41–33.48
Shots in box
33%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction7.108.2715.37safe4.15–10.045.59–10.959.74–20.99safer3.32–10.874.85–11.698.17–22.56
Blocked shots
24%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.493.706.19safe0.61–4.372.05–5.362.66–9.73safer0.06–4.921.56–5.851.62–10.76
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.925.299.20safe1.70–6.133.29–7.294.99–13.42safer1.13–6.702.75–7.823.88–14.52
Possession %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction44.2256.60safe37.43–51.0149.81–63.38safer35.76–52.6848.14–65.05
Passes
21%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction380478857safe313–447411–544724–991safer294–465394–562688–1027
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction69.3777.31safe65.34–73.4072.99–81.63safer64.05–74.6971.68–82.94
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2513.1626.41safe10.41–16.0910.22–16.1020.63–32.19safer9.65–16.849.47–16.8519.12–33.69
Offsides
77%
homeawaytotalprediction3.451.354.80safe2.29–4.610.26–2.452.55–7.06safer1.99–4.910.00–2.731.96–7.65
Yellow cards
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.584.51safe0.88–2.981.45–3.712.33–6.68safer0.61–3.241.16–4.001.77–7.24
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.23safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
50%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.112.615.72safe1.67–4.551.05–4.172.73–8.71safer1.29–4.930.63–4.591.92–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.47 0.61–2.32 0.38–2.55 | 2.62 0.79–4.44 0.31–4.92 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.86 2.00–5.72 1.51–6.21 | 4.58 2.84–6.32 2.37–6.79 | 8.44 4.84–12.05 3.88–13.00 | 34% 14% 53% |
| Total shots | 11.23 7.31–15.16 6.22–16.25 | 12.71 9.15–16.27 8.19–17.23 | 23.94 16.46–31.43 14.41–33.48 | 34% 58% |
| Shots in box | 7.10 4.15–10.04 3.32–10.87 | 8.27 5.59–10.95 4.85–11.69 | 15.37 9.74–20.99 8.17–22.56 | 33% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 2.49 0.61–4.37 0.06–4.92 | 3.70 2.05–5.36 1.56–5.85 | 6.19 2.66–9.73 1.62–10.76 | 24% 15% 61% |
| Corners | 3.92 1.70–6.13 1.13–6.70 | 5.29 3.29–7.29 2.75–7.82 | 9.20 4.99–13.42 3.88–14.52 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 44.22 37.43–51.01 35.76–52.68 | 56.60 49.81–63.38 48.14–65.05 | — | 21% 75% |
| Passes | 380 313–447 294–465 | 478 411–544 394–562 | 857 724–991 688–1027 | 21% 79% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.37 65.34–73.40 64.05–74.69 | 77.31 72.99–81.63 71.68–82.94 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 13.25 10.41–16.09 9.65–16.84 | 13.16 10.22–16.10 9.47–16.85 | 26.41 20.63–32.19 19.12–33.69 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 3.45 2.29–4.61 1.99–4.91 | 1.35 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.73 | 4.80 2.55–7.06 1.96–7.65 | 77% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.98 0.61–3.24 | 2.58 1.45–3.71 1.16–4.00 | 4.51 2.33–6.68 1.77–7.24 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.67–4.55 1.29–4.93 | 2.61 1.05–4.17 0.63–4.59 | 5.72 2.73–8.71 1.92–9.53 | 50% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+