Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
21%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.020.993.00safe1.05–2.990.13–1.841.18–4.83safer0.80–3.240.00–2.070.70–5.31
Shots on target
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.253.349.59safe4.39–8.111.59–5.085.98–13.19safer3.90–8.601.13–5.555.03–14.15
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction16.879.8926.76safe12.94–20.796.33–13.4619.27–34.25safer11.85–21.885.37–14.4217.22–36.30
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction11.536.2817.81safe8.58–14.473.60–8.9612.19–23.43safer7.75–15.302.87–9.7010.62–25.00
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.323.317.62safe2.43–6.201.65–4.964.09–11.16safer1.89–6.741.16–5.453.05–12.19
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.143.529.66safe3.92–8.351.52–5.525.45–13.87safer3.35–8.920.99–6.064.34–14.98
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction54.1245.90safe47.33–60.9139.11–52.68safer45.66–62.5837.44–54.35
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction483419901safe415–550352–485768–1035safer397–568335–503732–1071
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction73.7872.34safe69.75–77.8168.02–76.67safer68.46–79.1066.71–77.98
Fouls
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6811.7523.43safe8.84–14.518.80–14.6917.64–29.21safer8.08–15.278.06–15.4416.14–30.71
Offsides
50%
22%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.353.23safe0.72–3.040.26–2.440.98–5.48safer0.42–3.340.00–2.730.39–6.07
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.253.94safe0.64–2.741.12–3.381.76–6.12safer0.37–3.000.83–3.671.20–6.67
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
23%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.836.31safe1.05–3.922.27–5.383.32–9.30safer0.66–4.311.85–5.812.51–10.12
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.02 1.05–2.99 0.80–3.24 | 0.99 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 3.00 1.18–4.83 0.70–5.31 | 61% 21% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.25 4.39–8.11 3.90–8.60 | 3.34 1.59–5.08 1.13–5.55 | 9.59 5.98–13.19 5.03–14.15 | 78% 13% |
| Total shots | 16.87 12.94–20.79 11.85–21.88 | 9.89 6.33–13.46 5.37–14.42 | 26.76 19.27–34.25 17.22–36.30 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 11.53 8.58–14.47 7.75–15.30 | 6.28 3.60–8.96 2.87–9.70 | 17.81 12.19–23.43 10.62–25.00 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.43–6.20 1.89–6.74 | 3.31 1.65–4.96 1.16–5.45 | 7.62 4.09–11.16 3.05–12.19 | 57% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 6.14 3.92–8.35 3.35–8.92 | 3.52 1.52–5.52 0.99–6.06 | 9.66 5.45–13.87 4.34–14.98 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 54.12 47.33–60.91 45.66–62.58 | 45.90 39.11–52.68 37.44–54.35 | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 483 415–550 397–568 | 419 352–485 335–503 | 901 768–1035 732–1071 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.78 69.75–77.81 68.46–79.10 | 72.34 68.02–76.67 66.71–77.98 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 11.68 8.84–14.51 8.08–15.27 | 11.75 8.80–14.69 8.06–15.44 | 23.43 17.64–29.21 16.14–30.71 | 45% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.35 0.26–2.44 0.00–2.73 | 3.23 0.98–5.48 0.39–6.07 | 50% 22% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.00 | 2.25 1.12–3.38 0.83–3.67 | 3.94 1.76–6.12 1.20–6.67 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.05–3.92 0.66–4.31 | 3.83 2.27–5.38 1.85–5.81 | 6.31 3.32–9.30 2.51–10.12 | 23% 14% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.