UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Oleksiy Derevinskiy
Goals
77%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.430.653.08safe1.47–3.390.00–1.511.25–4.90safer1.21–3.650.00–1.750.75–5.41actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction6.782.549.32safe4.92–8.630.84–4.255.76–12.88safer4.42–9.130.37–4.724.79–13.85actual7.003.0010.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.338.1526.48safe14.62–22.034.77–11.5319.39–33.56safer13.59–23.063.84–12.4617.43–35.52actual11.0011.0022.00
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction13.554.6918.24safe11.03–16.062.39–6.9913.42–23.05safer10.16–16.931.59–7.7911.76–24.72actual9.005.0014.00
Blocked shots
80%
homeawaytotalprediction4.952.257.20safe3.36–6.530.84–3.674.20–10.20safer2.83–7.060.35–4.153.18–11.22actual2.001.003.00
Corners
88%
homeawaytotalprediction7.403.1310.52safe5.19–9.601.15–5.106.34–14.71safer4.60–10.200.61–5.645.21–15.84actual0.001.001.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction60.0439.28safe53.73–66.3632.96–45.60safer52.13–67.9631.36–47.19actual48.0052.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction557385942safe492–623320–449812–1072safer474–640303–467777–1107actual4985481046
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction86.6175.99safe82.40–90.8371.48–80.50safer81.10–92.1370.15–81.83
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5411.0922.62safe8.68–14.398.14–14.0316.82–28.43safer7.79–15.287.22–14.9515.02–30.23actual9.0019.0028.00
Offsides
47%
21%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.663.68safe0.81–3.230.49–2.821.31–6.05safer0.47–3.580.16–3.150.63–6.73actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
22%
21%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.182.023.21safe0.13–2.240.90–3.141.03–5.38safer0.00–2.510.61–3.430.47–5.94actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.080.11safe0.00–0.180.00–0.280.00–0.46safer0.00–0.330.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
15%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.013.935.94safe0.59–3.422.38–5.492.97–8.91safer0.21–3.811.95–5.922.15–9.73actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.43 1.47–3.39 1.21–3.65 | 5.00 | 0.65 0.00–1.51 0.00–1.75 | 0.00 | 3.08 1.25–4.90 0.75–5.41 | 5.00 | 77% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.78 4.92–8.63 4.42–9.13 | 7.00 | 2.54 0.84–4.25 0.37–4.72 | 3.00 | 9.32 5.76–12.88 4.79–13.85 | 10.00 | 89% |
| Total shots | 18.33 14.62–22.03 13.59–23.06 | 11.00 | 8.15 4.77–11.53 3.84–12.46 | 11.00 | 26.48 19.39–33.56 17.43–35.52 | 22.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 13.55 11.03–16.06 10.16–16.93 | 9.00 | 4.69 2.39–6.99 1.59–7.79 | 5.00 | 18.24 13.42–23.05 11.76–24.72 | 14.00 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 4.95 3.36–6.53 2.83–7.06 | 2.00 | 2.25 0.84–3.67 0.35–4.15 | 1.00 | 7.20 4.20–10.20 3.18–11.22 | 3.00 | 80% |
| Corners | 7.40 5.19–9.60 4.60–10.20 | 0.00 | 3.13 1.15–5.10 0.61–5.64 | 1.00 | 10.52 6.34–14.71 5.21–15.84 | 1.00 | 88% |
| Possession % | 60.04 53.73–66.36 52.13–67.96 | 48.00 | 39.28 32.96–45.60 31.36–47.19 | 52.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 557 492–623 474–640 | 498 | 385 320–449 303–467 | 548 | 942 812–1072 777–1107 | 1046 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.61 82.40–90.83 81.10–92.13 | — | 75.99 71.48–80.50 70.15–81.83 | — | — | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.68–14.39 7.79–15.28 | 9.00 | 11.09 8.14–14.03 7.22–14.95 | 19.00 | 22.62 16.82–28.43 15.02–30.23 | 28.00 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.81–3.23 0.47–3.58 | 1.00 | 1.66 0.49–2.82 0.16–3.15 | 0.00 | 3.68 1.31–6.05 0.63–6.73 | 1.00 | 47% 21% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.18 0.13–2.24 0.00–2.51 | 1.00 | 2.02 0.90–3.14 0.61–3.43 | 1.00 | 3.21 1.03–5.38 0.47–5.94 | 2.00 | 22% 21% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.01 0.59–3.42 0.21–3.81 | 3.00 | 3.93 2.38–5.49 1.95–5.92 | 2.00 | 5.94 2.97–8.91 2.15–9.73 | 5.00 | 15% 72% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.