UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.052.48safe0.47–2.410.19–1.900.66–4.31safer0.22–2.660.00–2.130.18–4.79
Shots on target
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.903.828.72safe3.03–6.762.08–5.565.11–12.32safer2.54–7.251.61–6.034.15–13.28
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5610.8324.38safe9.63–17.487.27–14.3916.90–31.87safer8.54–18.576.31–15.3514.85–33.92
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction9.207.4316.63safe6.26–12.144.75–10.1111.01–22.25safer5.43–12.974.01–10.859.44–23.82
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.147.13safe2.11–5.871.49–4.793.60–10.67safer1.57–6.420.99–5.282.56–11.70
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.454.409.85safe3.23–7.662.40–6.405.63–14.06safer2.66–8.241.87–6.934.53–15.17
Possession %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction56.7743.41safe49.98–63.5636.62–50.19safer48.31–65.2334.95–51.87
Passes
86%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction493362854safe425–560295–428721–988safer407–578278–446685–1024
Pass accuracy %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction77.3771.08safe73.34–81.4066.75–75.40safer72.05–82.6965.44–76.71
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1113.7925.90safe9.27–14.9510.84–16.7320.12–31.68safer8.52–15.7010.10–17.4818.61–33.18
Offsides
24%
21%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.302.053.35safe0.14–2.460.95–3.141.09–5.60safer0.00–2.760.67–3.430.51–6.19
Yellow cards
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.414.19safe0.73–2.831.28–3.542.01–6.37safer0.47–3.100.99–3.831.45–6.93
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
32%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.463.075.53safe1.02–3.901.51–4.632.54–8.52safer0.64–4.281.09–5.051.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.41 0.22–2.66 | 1.05 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.48 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 46% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.03–6.76 2.54–7.25 | 3.82 2.08–5.56 1.61–6.03 | 8.72 5.11–12.32 4.15–13.28 | 58% 29% |
| Total shots | 13.56 9.63–17.48 8.54–18.57 | 10.83 7.27–14.39 6.31–15.35 | 24.38 16.90–31.87 14.85–33.92 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 9.20 6.26–12.14 5.43–12.97 | 7.43 4.75–10.11 4.01–10.85 | 16.63 11.01–22.25 9.44–23.82 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.11–5.87 1.57–6.42 | 3.14 1.49–4.79 0.99–5.28 | 7.13 3.60–10.67 2.56–11.70 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.23–7.66 2.66–8.24 | 4.40 2.40–6.40 1.87–6.93 | 9.85 5.63–14.06 4.53–15.17 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 56.77 49.98–63.56 48.31–65.23 | 43.41 36.62–50.19 34.95–51.87 | — | 77% 20% |
| Passes | 493 425–560 407–578 | 362 295–428 278–446 | 854 721–988 685–1024 | 86% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.37 73.34–81.40 72.05–82.69 | 71.08 66.75–75.40 65.44–76.71 | — | 77% 19% |
| Fouls | 12.11 9.27–14.95 8.52–15.70 | 13.79 10.84–16.73 10.10–17.48 | 25.90 20.12–31.68 18.61–33.18 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.30 0.14–2.46 0.00–2.76 | 2.05 0.95–3.14 0.67–3.43 | 3.35 1.09–5.60 0.51–6.19 | 24% 21% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.83 0.47–3.10 | 2.41 1.28–3.54 0.99–3.83 | 4.19 2.01–6.37 1.45–6.93 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.46 1.02–3.90 0.64–4.28 | 3.07 1.51–4.63 1.09–5.05 | 5.53 2.54–8.52 1.72–9.33 | 32% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.