UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Europa League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Mohammad Al-Emara
Goals
24%
24%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.091.742.84safe0.13–2.060.88–2.601.01–4.66safer0.00–2.320.64–2.850.51–5.17actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction4.336.1710.50safe2.47–6.194.46–7.886.94–14.06safer1.98–6.693.99–8.355.97–15.03actual0.007.007.00
Total shots
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8614.4725.32safe7.15–14.5611.09–17.8518.24–32.41safer6.12–15.5910.16–18.7816.28–34.37actual14.0012.0026.00
Shots in box
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction7.019.2716.28safe4.49–9.526.97–11.5711.46–21.10safer3.63–10.396.17–12.379.80–22.76actual9.009.0018.00
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.203.426.62safe1.62–4.782.00–4.833.62–9.61safer1.08–5.321.52–5.322.60–10.64actual8.002.0010.00
Corners
31%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.435.439.85safe2.22–6.633.45–7.415.67–14.04safer1.63–7.232.91–7.944.54–15.17actual5.004.009.00
Possession %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction45.9554.04safe39.63–52.2647.72–60.36safer38.03–53.8646.12–61.96actual46.0054.00
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction390447837safe325–455382–512707–967safer307–473365–529672–1002actual459469928
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction81.5381.00safe77.32–85.7576.49–85.50safer76.02–87.0575.16–86.83
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1211.5321.65safe7.26–12.978.59–14.4815.85–27.45safer6.37–13.867.67–15.4014.04–29.25actual9.0021.0030.00
Offsides
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.583.02safe0.23–2.650.42–2.750.65–5.39safer0.00–2.990.09–3.080.00–6.07actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.822.063.88safe0.77–2.880.94–3.181.70–6.06safer0.50–3.150.65–3.471.14–6.62actual1.005.006.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.060.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.250.00–0.44safer0.00–0.350.00–0.390.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
63%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.322.897.21safe2.91–5.741.33–4.444.24–10.18safer2.52–6.130.90–4.873.42–11.00actual6.000.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 0.13–2.06 0.00–2.32 | 0.00 | 1.74 0.88–2.60 0.64–2.85 | 1.00 | 2.84 1.01–4.66 0.51–5.17 | 1.00 | 24% 24% 53% |
| Shots on target | 4.33 2.47–6.19 1.98–6.69 | 0.00 | 6.17 4.46–7.88 3.99–8.35 | 7.00 | 10.50 6.94–14.06 5.97–15.03 | 7.00 | 23% 66% |
| Total shots | 10.86 7.15–14.56 6.12–15.59 | 14.00 | 14.47 11.09–17.85 10.16–18.78 | 12.00 | 25.32 18.24–32.41 16.28–34.37 | 26.00 | 21% 73% |
| Shots in box | 7.01 4.49–9.52 3.63–10.39 | 9.00 | 9.27 6.97–11.57 6.17–12.37 | 9.00 | 16.28 11.46–21.10 9.80–22.76 | 18.00 | 25% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 1.62–4.78 1.08–5.32 | 8.00 | 3.42 2.00–4.83 1.52–5.32 | 2.00 | 6.62 3.62–9.61 2.60–10.64 | 10.00 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 4.43 2.22–6.63 1.63–7.23 | 5.00 | 5.43 3.45–7.41 2.91–7.94 | 4.00 | 9.85 5.67–14.04 4.54–15.17 | 9.00 | 31% 56% |
| Possession % | 45.95 39.63–52.26 38.03–53.86 | 46.00 | 54.04 47.72–60.36 46.12–61.96 | 54.00 | — | — | 28% 67% |
| Passes | 390 325–455 307–473 | 459 | 447 382–512 365–529 | 469 | 837 707–967 672–1002 | 928 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.53 77.32–85.75 76.02–87.05 | — | 81.00 76.49–85.50 75.16–86.83 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 10.12 7.26–12.97 6.37–13.86 | 9.00 | 11.53 8.59–14.48 7.67–15.40 | 21.00 | 21.65 15.85–27.45 14.04–29.25 | 30.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.23–2.65 0.00–2.99 | 0.00 | 1.58 0.42–2.75 0.09–3.08 | 0.00 | 3.02 0.65–5.39 0.00–6.07 | 0.00 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.77–2.88 0.50–3.15 | 1.00 | 2.06 0.94–3.18 0.65–3.47 | 5.00 | 3.88 1.70–6.06 1.14–6.62 | 6.00 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 4.32 2.91–5.74 2.52–6.13 | 6.00 | 2.89 1.33–4.44 0.90–4.87 | 0.00 | 7.21 4.24–10.18 3.42–11.00 | 6.00 | 63% 13% 23% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.